Latin America Economics Weekly Pricing Amlo risk, Brazil’s GDP quirk Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s announcement that he will postpone oil auctions adds to a series of populist moves that have rattled local markets, and we reckon this has resulted in a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish MPC to sound dovish, CEE made strong start to Q4 Signs of softer inflation and weak economic activity will almost certainly prompt the Turkish MPC to strike a dovish tone at Thursday’s meeting. Investors seem to share our concerns that policymakers... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The breakdown of euro-zone Q3 GDP suggests that the slowdown was down to more than just disruption to car production. Nevertheless, for now we still think that quarterly growth will probably pick up a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus As US slowdowns go, this one won’t be too worrying The US slowdown that we anticipate next year will weigh on global growth, but the impact will be relatively mild by past standards. This means that interest rates in some areas will be rising at the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly MTN dispute underlines Nigeria’s difficult business environment An opaque out-of-court settlement between Nigeria’s government and MTN would do little to improve perceptions of the country’s business environment. Elsewhere; South Africa’s economy returned to... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s industrial production data for Germany and France add to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to bounce back strongly after Q3’s slowdown in GDP growth. 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI confusion, Rajasthan election Some have interpreted the small cuts to the statutory liquidity ratio announced by the RBI this week as evidence that the central bank is loosening policy, but we disagree. Meanwhile, the state... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA not ready to cut The financial markets are now pricing in a small chance of a rate cut by the RBA next year following the release of weak GDP data this week. But while we expect GDP growth to slow further next year... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the surveys overstating the impact of Brexit again? The deterioration in the business surveys in November was probably partly driven by growing fears that the Brexit mess will not be sorted out in time to avoid a no deal. As such, economic activity... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook Long-term Global Economic Outlook We think that world GDP growth will average around 3.0% over the next twenty years, compared to around 3.5% over the past two decades. Productivity growth is likely to rebound in advanced economies... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to make of the inverted yield curve The sharp flattening of the yield curve, which has now inverted between two and five years out, is consistent with our view that economic growth is set to slow significantly next year. We currently... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election not a reason to expect Mexican growth to slow Mexican economic growth has weakened after all but one presidential election since 1950, and there have been growing suggestions that the recent change of government could cause growth to weaken next... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising in Italy After contracting in Q3, activity surveys suggest that Italy’s economy is on the brink of recession. Indeed, the Composite PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in November, which on past form points to GDP... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMI data suggest that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have held up well given the backdrop of the fall in oil prices. But we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, the surveys showed... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) Household spending isn’t falling off a cliff just yet but we still think that the downturn in the housing market will restrain consumption growth before long. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q4 Following the solid rise in GDP in the third quarter, the recent news has been disappointing. The business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. And following a brief period... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
