Africa Economics Update Africa: Lack of manufacturing will hold back growth Africa’s failure to develop export-orientated manufacturing sectors is holding back economic development across the region. We expect that this will remain a key weakness over the long term. Even in... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) The improvement in the Russian activity data in October suggests that, after growing by a disappointing 1.3% y/y in Q3, the economy regained momentum at the start of Q4. We expect this recovery to be... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Households can cope with rate hikes (in most cases) Households’ balance sheets are mostly in good shape and so are unlikely to cause any major trouble. But households in a few economies would be vulnerable if interest rates were to rise by more than we... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Swine fever hogs headlines, but impact still small The spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China’s leading pig-rearing province (Sichuan) last week is an alarming development. But despite its rapid expansion across the country (the disease has... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Households well placed to withstand higher rates With debt servicing costs still low and delinquency rates stable, households’ debt burdens are unlikely to emerge as a source of trouble, even as rising interest rates cause economic growth to slow... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q3) The slowdown in Chilean GDP growth from 5.3% y/y in Q2 to 2.8% y/y in Q3 was driven in large part by a drop in export growth, but there are also signs that domestic demand is losing some steam. While... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Thailand slowed sharply in Q3, and is likely to struggle for momentum in the quarters ahead due to a combination of weaker external demand and a faltering tourism sector. 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Easing net migration a headwind to GDP growth Policy changes and a narrowing between the relative attractiveness of Australia and New Zealand will contribute to a slowdown in net migration to New Zealand. Easing net migration will cause growth in... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Oct.) The continued widening of the trade deficit suggests that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. And while the recent strength in import growth probably won’t be sustained, the... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deal dead on arrival, earnings on the up With Theresa May’s EU deal already seemingly dead in the water and speculation rife that a no-confidence vote in her leadership is imminent, the chances of the UK heading for either a “no deal” Brexit... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth holding up in early Q4, but set to slow The very early evidence suggests that EM GDP growth steadied at the start of Q4, as stronger export growth offset a slowdown in consumption. But activity is likely to weaken over the course of 2019. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The subdued 0.1% m/m rise in industrial production in October was partly the result of temporary disruptions linked to Hurricane Michael, with manufacturing output continuing to expand at a healthy... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank still on course for December hike October’s weaker-than expected inflation data, published this week, are unlikely to deter the Riksbank from raising interest rates in the coming months, with a December hike most likely in our view... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe considers response to Italy The EU looks set to launch disciplinary proceedings against Italy, perhaps as soon as next week. But unless the situation in Italy escalates dramatically, the ECB is unlikely to respond. Instead, the... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) September’s rise in manufacturing sales capped off a strong quarter, but sales fell in volumes terms and the breakdown was hardly encouraging. While the Markit manufacturing PMI remained fairly high... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian oil output jumps, CEE economies gather pace The Russian government seems to have softened its line about cutting oil output to prop up prices this week, but given that output surged in October, any cuts would have a limited economic impact... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
