India Economics Update Five questions and answers on the near-term outlook We’ve recently received several questions from clients on how the near-term outlook for India is shaping up. This Update summarises our big picture views for the next six months or so by providing... 20th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily Earnings expectations, the Fed and the S&P 500 Optimistic expectations for US corporate earnings over the next couple of years, coupled with a still-hawkish Fed, mean we think the S&P 500 will stay under pressure for a while. 18th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Global backdrop lays bare EM vulnerabilities Most large EMs are weathering the environment of rising global interest rates and a strong dollar relatively well. That said, countries with large current account deficits, most notably Chile and... 18th July 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Soaring inflation to trigger a recession A rise in CPI inflation from the 40-year high of 9.1% in May to a peak of 12% or higher in October will reduce real incomes by enough to mean that a recession now seems inevitable. Our forecast that... 18th July 2022 · 27 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will reduce pressure on Yield Curve Control Supply shortages and continued virus caution will result in a weaker recovery in Japan than most anticipate. With wage growth sluggish too, the Bank of Japan won’t see a need to lift its policy rates... 18th July 2022 · 18 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Will the ECB & BoJ fight back against depreciation? Although it has dropped back a little today, the US dollar is on track for another strong week, rising further against all other major currencies and hitting a new 20-year high. At the time of writing... 15th July 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation up, but better news coming The bigger-than-expected rise in CPI inflation to 9.1% in June triggered speculation that the Fed might follow the Bank of Canada with a 100bp rate hike later this month. But the disappointing... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities still face many headwinds We think that several data releases and events over the past week or so lend some support to our view that China’s stock markets will continue to struggle. 15th July 2022 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The decline in industrial production in June, led by a fall in manufacturing output, could reflect weaker demand for goods, but we suspect that it is also due to the zero-covid shutdowns in China... 15th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Demographics to lift growth, but convergence still distant The latest population projections released by the UN this week reaffirm that demographics will support strong GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the long run. But similarly robust income convergence... 15th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian central banks turn hawkish Asian policymakers turned decidedly more hawkish this week, with the central banks of Korea, Singapore and the Philippines, all tightening monetary policy aggressively. Further hikes across the region... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Three key calls on the eurozone We published our latest European Economic Outlook this week, which sets out our view that the euro-zone is heading for recession and that core inflation will remain above 2% for several more years... 15th July 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) The statistics bureau claim that output in Q2 was slightly higher than a year ago. That’s implausible even accounting for the strong rebound shown on the monthly data for June. 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market jitters, demographic decline Homebuyers across China are banding together to pause mortgage payments in response to construction delays on presold apartments. For now these boycotts are small in scale. But they could become more... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Sri Lanka We held a Drop-In earlier today to discuss recent developments in Sri Lanka, where the economic and political crisis is going from bad to worse. This Update answers several of the questions that we... 14th July 2022 · 4 mins read
