Japan Economics Weekly 2.5% inflation, border to reopen to tourists in June Despite a huge pot of excess savings accumulated over the past couple of years, today’s 2.5% inflation print for April is likely to slow the post-Omicron recovery by spooking consumers not used to... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions on the global economic outlook We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss our Q2 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers several of the excellent questions that we... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation becoming more entrenched The latest data suggest that the increase in inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent. While headline inflation only edged up in April, the core measure jumped to 3.5%. A range of... 5th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ and the Russian oil embargo, GCC follows Fed The EU’s plans to phase out imports of Russian oil would increase the chances that the Gulf economies raise oil output more quickly. This would provide a significant fillip to economic recoveries this... 5th May 2022 · 7 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Apr.) India’s April PMIs show activity picking up, but power shortages may weigh on output soon. The surveys also provide more evidence of price pressures growing. That suggests the RBI will follow up... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM export strength starting to fade Having surged over the past two years, there are signs that EM exports may now have passed their peak. That will weigh on economic growth, particularly in parts of Asia. EM Drop-In (5 th May, 10:00... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The surge in the trade deficit to a record high of $109.8bn in March, from $89.8bn, was driven by a huge rise in imports as port congestion cleared. We suspect imports will fall back over the coming... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The trade surplus unexpectedly fell in March, despite the surge in commodity prices, but it is likely to rise in the second quarter, as export volumes recover while import volumes drop back. Canada... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) The decrease in euro-zone retail sales in March is the first indication from official data that the war in Ukraine is weighing on consumption. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Mar.) The decent increase in unsecured borrowing in March suggests that the plunge in consumer confidence and fall in real incomes have not caused consumer spending to collapse. This lends some support to... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar. 2022) Retail sales defied the weakness in consumer confidence in March and with the household savings rate still high, we expect consumption to keep expanding at a strong pace. 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Q1 GDP data give a false steer on US vs euro-zone Uncharacteristically, euro-zone GDP rose while US GDP fell in Q1. But the weak outturn in the US partly reflected temporary factors and domestic spending remained much stronger than in the euro-zone... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update PMI readings bode ill for commodities demand The global manufacturing PMI fell back in April. Admittedly, it was a sharp drop in China’s PMI that weighed on the global aggregate, but there are warning signs in the PMIs of most of the major... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe’s supply problems still intense The timeliest surveys show that supply problems faced by euro-zone companies have eased a little this year, but remain intense. This will continue to weigh on production and keep inflation high. UK... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.3% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the sector made a stronger contribution to GDP growth in Q1 than in Q4, and there are signs of further improvement in... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
