US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Never bet against the US consumer has always been a good adage to bear in mind throughout my 20-plus years in the markets. Despite the surge in prices weighing on their purchasing power, the US... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s economy to beat expectations this year The solid 1.0% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q1 suggests the economy came through the Omicron virus wave in good shape and, given the recent surge in oil prices, we expect above-consensus growth of 6... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The euro-zone economy grew slightly faster in Q1 than previously estimated and there was a solid increase in employment at the start of the year too. While we expect the labour market to remain a... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption to surge even as real incomes fall We now expect Australia’s inflation to rise by more than 6% this year. Even allowing for an acceleration in earnings growth and a further solid rise in employment as immigration resumes, that will... 17th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2022) Q1 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe smashed expectations in Poland, Romania and Hungary and suggest that their economies were running hot at the start of the year. The war in Ukraine will... 17th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) Following continued growth in the first quarter, the pace of the recovery will largely depend on how quickly tourists return now that the country has fully reopened to foreign visitors. Emerging Asia... 17th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of China’s lockdowns China’s slowdown could keep the renminbi under pressure, and may have gloomy implications for global markets as well. 16th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The rise in manufacturing sales in March was entirely due to higher commodity prices, but the orders data and the business surveys suggest that sales volumes will do better in the coming months. 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Is a recession necessary to bring down inflation? Provided that supply-related price rises ease, we think that it is possible in theory for central banks to bring inflation down from its current high rates without engineering a recession. However... 16th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q1 2022) The 1.6% q/q annualised contraction in Q1 GDP in Israel was weaker than analysts expected, but it was more or less in line with our forecast and doesn’t change the bigger picture that Israel’s economy... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Apr.) The April data were even weaker than expected and are consistent with a sharp contraction in economic activity. Provided that the virus situation continues to improve, the economy should begin to... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The dollar rally might be due a pause Despite a reversal today, the US dollar looks set to appreciate for the sixth week running as “risky” assets remain under pressure. The DXY index has had its largest six-week gain since mid-2016... 13th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rising CPI expectations occupying minds at Riksbank Just as policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, the rise in expectations in Sweden is giving the Riksbank plenty to fret about too. The Bank’s preferred... 13th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the outlook for the S&P 500 History suggests the S&P 500 might recover quite quickly once it reaches its trough, but that may be a way off yet and still-rosy earnings expectations could be an obstacle. 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary politics in Nigeria, Ghana’s efforts to curb debt Nigerian President Buhari’s instruction that current government officials planning to run for the country’s highest office should resign will probably leave the central bank without a governor, but... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation looking better under the hood Fed officials will have been eyeing the flood of red on their screens this week with a growing sense of foreboding. Admittedly, for GDP growth to slow and inflation to fall, they want financial... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
