Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Activity set to weaken as headwinds mount Many EMs have started the year on a solid footing, but challenging months lie ahead. While high inflation is likely to weigh on consumption, spillovers from lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine... 25th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation surge to prompt more rapid tightening The surge in consumer price inflation in March leads us to think that the Bank of Canada will now rapidly raise its policy rate to 2.5% by the end of the year. 23rd April 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rises further and the renminbi (finally) falls Another week of broad-based appreciation has seen the US dollar edge higher even as US bond yields have stalled. Instead, it is the sell-off in equity markets over the past couple of days which has... 22nd April 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook A year of stagflation The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to Europe just as it was coming out of the pandemic. Higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated, squeeze household incomes and dent business confidence... 22nd April 2022 · 31 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election race heats up Brazil’s presidential election race has started to take centre stage as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap in the polls with front-runner Lula. Investors’ concerns about a shift to looser... 22nd April 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Activity holding up, but price pressures still rising The Flash PMIs for April suggest that activity in advanced economies generally held up better than expected at the start of Q2, despite worries of a large hit to industry from lockdowns in China and... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Europe turns to Africa to replace Russian gas European officials have increasingly looked to Africa to replace gas supplies from Russia. While the region’s gas producers – like Angola and Nigeria – will gain from the recent surge in global energy... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed set to push harder on the brakes With Fed officials seemingly competing to try and sound more hawkish than their peers, a 50bp rate hike next month appears nailed on – even though this week also brought further tentative signs that... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s crisis easing, Poland’s energy supply boom Comments from Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina this week underline the view that the most acute phase of Russia's crisis may have passed and that interest rates are likely to fall... 22nd April 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) Retail sales were basically unchanged in February, but this understates the strength of total spending following the lifting of the Omicron wave restrictions on high-contact services. As consumer... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weak economy won’t prevent further bond market sell-off The downbeat news on the UK economy this week did not stop the 10-year gilt yield rising further to its highest level since November 2015. And with CPI inflation set to climb further, perhaps to a... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB officials begin to talk of July rate hike With several members of the ECB Governing Council coming out in favour of a July rate hike this week we are feeling more confident in our forecast that the Bank will raise its deposit rate to +0.25%... 22nd April 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Salmon-omics; Riksbank set to hike We expect the Riksbank to raise the repo rate by 25bps, to +0.25%, next week. But whereas some central banks – notably the US Fed – are gearing up for aggressive tightening cycles, the comparatively... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC will embrace the renminbi’s decline The People’s Bank appears to have been pushing against the renminbi’s strength for a while. This week, finally, the market responded. The PBOC doesn’t have much tolerance for sharp market moves and... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) The fall in the composite PMI in April suggests GDP growth has continued to slow as the cost of living crisis has intensified. But economic activity doesn’t appear to be collapsing. And, beneath the... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
