Emerging Europe Economics Update Recapping the Russia-Ukraine crisis Tensions between Russia and the West have intensified and rattled global financial markets. Amidst the uncertain situation, this Update brings together some of the key implications of the crisis for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 confirms that the region’s economy was struggling at the end of 2021. But with Omicron under control and restrictions being eased, we expect the recovery to... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2021) Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were generally stronger-than-expected as policymakers responded to virus outbreaks with only light-touch restrictions and easing supply shortages... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect from QT Quantitative tightening (QT), namely the shrinking of central banks’ balance sheets, is likely to play an active role alongside rising interest rates in the tightening of monetary policy over the... 15th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q4 2021 Preliminary) While Omicron will cause Japan’s economy to do little more than tread water this quarter following a rebound in Q4, output should soon resume its recovery and get back on its pre-virus trend by the... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Slump in fertility need not slow population growth The sharp drop in the fertility rate during the pandemic has already started to reverse. And even if it is sustained, the government will be able to offset a slower natural increase with higher net... 14th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Regional inflation troubles, Costa Rica votes The recent batch of January inflation data across Latin America made for grim reading and, despite the hawkish response by central banks, inflation rates will remain high until much later this year... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SONA takeaways, Nigeria FX policy, Ghana to the IMF? The economy was a key theme in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) in South Africa as the president vowed to press ahead with his reform drive but gave some ground to those in his party... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weak start to 2022 won’t deter monetary tightening While data from the past month have been consistent with global economic activity picking up some pace towards the tail end of 2021, timely data point to a weak turn of the year as the Omicron wave... 11th February 2022 · 14 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rising inflation adds to pressure on the Fed The news this week that CPI inflation climbed to a new high of 7.5% in January prompted another surge in interest rate expectations. 11th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish hawks, Russia-Ukraine latest, Czech budget Comments from Poland’s central bank Governor Glapinski this week underlined the hawkish shift from the NBP and support our view that interest rates will rise to at least 4.5% in this cycle. Meanwhile... 11th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem betting on productivity rebound Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem made the case this week that productivity growth should rebound strongly this year and next. While we agree that a rebound is on the cards, we judge that the Bank... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs looking well placed to weather tightening in DMs Rising inflation has put major DM central banks under pressure and interest rate expectations have risen. But most emerging markets look relatively well placed to weather a period of DM policy... 11th February 2022 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending disappoints, vaccines pay dividends In some respects, activities around the Lunar New Year holiday were closer to normal this year than last, but tourism spending was still depressed. We expect further monetary easing to be announced in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Ingves overrules logic and the hawkish mutineers The main takeaways from this week’s Riksbank announcement were that a) Governor Ingves is stubbornly dovish, and; b) three of the six members of the Executive Board advocate “QT” this year. Given that... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB only partly rows back from hawkish shift Sifting through the numerous statements by ECB policymakers this week leaves us still thinking that the ECB is likely to “recalibrate” its plans in March and pave the way for an end to QE and a first... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read