India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) Growth in India’s core infrastructure industries slowed in March as production of some energy commodities fell. However, there are tentative signs that the rise in commodity prices caused by the war... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy struggling, euro heading to parity Data released this week showed that the euro-zone economy eked out a small expansion in Q1, but we think that it will contract in Q2. The weak economic outlook combined with the ECB's likely more... 29th April 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Our new forecasts, pound risks adding to price pressures Even though we think the pound will continue to weaken against the US dollar, from $1.26 now to around $1.22 by the end of the year, that’s unlikely to significantly boost CPI inflation as we think it... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Prov.) The pick-up in Mexico’s GDP growth to 0.9% q/q last quarter was largely a result of a strong carryover from late 2021, and the economy was weakening sharply heading into Q2. As the headwinds from high... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2022) and Flash HICP (April) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q1 means that the region will avoid a technical recession in the first half of the year. But rising inflation and the fallout from the Ukraine war mean that GDP... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lack of finance undermines Xi’s infrastructure push Today’s Politburo meeting repeated Xi’s recent call for a step-up in infrastructure construction. A shift is already underway on the ground, with spending accelerating. But the scope for even faster... 29th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1 2022) The 0.7% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q1 was slightly stronger than expected, although it still marked a slowdown in growth and, in particular, there were signs of weakness at the end of the quarter... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Pockets of public debt vulnerability Tighter global monetary conditions and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused public debt problems to worsen in several emerging markets, and the MENA region is not immune to this. Within the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the yen’s new lows We wouldn’t be surprised if the yen fell further against most major currencies but doubt this would give the country’s equity market a relative boost, in common-currency terms at least. 28th April 2022 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Monetary conditions tighten The key policy development this month was the introduction of a new Standing Deposit Facility, through which the RBI will drain excess banking sector liquidity. The SDF now provides the floor for the... 28th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) The unexpectedly severe 1.4% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP probably won't stop the Fed from hiking interest rates by 50bp next week, since officials will chalk it up to the temporary impact... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal positions largely going from worse to bad Fiscal positions across Sub-Saharan Africa have been a persistent source of concern since the onset of the pandemic – and in some cases, even before. And the commodity price moves resulting from the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New headwinds emerge Our GDP growth forecasts are generally above the consensus, but with higher commodity prices and weaker global demand set to weigh on economic recoveries, growth across much of Emerging Asia will be... 28th April 2022 · 35 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1, provisional) A further pickup in exports drove continued strong Taiwanese GDP growth in Q1, but we expect the economy to lose momentum over the coming quarters as the external sector weakens and COVID-19 weighs on... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
