Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (May) The small increase in euro-zone retail sales in May, after a steep fall in April, suggests that high inflation remains a drag on consumption. Although re-opening effects may have boosted consumption... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Another look at Italy’s debt arithmetic It seems most likely that Italy will be able to put its public debt ratio on a gradual downward trajectory, even as interest rates rise, by running primary budget surpluses. But if 10-year government... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s economy heading into choppy waters Having defied gravity in 2021, this year is shaping up to be much tougher for Chile’s economy and we think that the economy will contract in both Q3 and Q4. Despite the weakening growth outlook, high... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What rate of wage growth is acceptable for central banks? Even though workers are accepting cuts in their real pay, nominal wage growth is still above “acceptable” rates for central banks in DMs of 3% to 4%. This underlines why interest rates need to head... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response S&P Global PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMIs were the proverbial mixed bag, but the bigger picture is that activity in the Gulf economies has remained robust and there are signs that firms are increasingly passing on higher costs to... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June) June’s final Composite PMIs confirmed the message from the flash release that activity is softening and that firms expect weaker conditions ahead. And price pressures remain intense throughout the... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jun.) India’s June PMIs show exceptionally strong activity in the services sector is offsetting slower growth in manufacturing. That may give the RBI some added confidence to continue frontloading policy... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2) The increase in long-run inflation expectations in the Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys further raises the probability of the Bank enacting a larger 75 bp interest rate hike next... 4th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Russian gas export ban would hold back recovery If Russia decided to end all exports of natural gas to Japan, we suspect that Japan’s GDP would fall by around 0.5%. However, the hit could be larger as there is now less scope to reduce energy usage... 4th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to marked easing of goods price pressures Policymakers will have breathed a small sigh of relief at the latest manufacturing PMI surveys because they contained lots of signals that global goods price inflation will ease later this year... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: recovery in China but weakness elsewhere The S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI hit its highest level in over a year last month, but that was almost entirely driven by a recovery in China. The surveys softened across most of the rest of the... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year low of 53.0 in June, from 56.1, will probably add to fears over the health of the economy. That said, for now it is still consistent on past form... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Corporate FX debt risks in Turkey, EU fund hopes Recent plans announced by the Turkish authorities to restrict access to lira-denominated loans to corporates with large FX holdings add to the growing risks stemming from corporates' large FX debts... 1st July 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in confidence not enough to rule out aggressive rate hikes Signs that business confidence has started to ease may provide the Monetary Policy Committee with some reassurance that firms' pricing power will soon soften. But the danger that bigger increases in... 1st July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Mounting signs of a slowdown We learned this week that consumer spending lost more momentum through the second quarter than initially thought, while the incoming survey evidence for June suggests the quarter ended on a weak note... 1st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read