China Activity Monitor CAP: Output to stagnate in 2022 despite latest bounce Our China Activity Proxy suggests that around half of the drop in output during the recent virus wave reversed in May. This recovery looks to have continued in June. But a lot of damage has already... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack FX intervention from a position of strength The rupee has held up better than most EM currencies this month and the recent drop in FX reserves strongly indicates that this is in part because the RBI has once again ramped up its FX interventions... 22nd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Codelco strike threat, Chile and the copper price A threatened strike at Chile’s copper giant, Codelco, could knock as much as 0.3%-pts off quarterly GDP growth for every week that workers are on strike and worsen the country’s balance of payments... 21st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The strong rise in retail sales volumes in April reinforces our view that overall consumption growth will accelerate sharply this quarter but, with consumer confidence plunging in June and the housing... 21st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack BoJ at the barricades While inflation is still far lower in Japan than in most places, rapid increases in the prices of some everyday purchases have made it a political focus. A Nikkei poll following the Bank of Japan’s... 21st June 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Jubilee bank holiday makes life hard for the Bank of England By cutting GDP growth by about 0.3-0.4 percentage points (ppts) in Q2 and raising GDP growth by a similar amount in Q3, the impact of the extra bank holiday to mark the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee will... 21st June 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tighter global financing conditions, Zambia’s debt African financial markets are not insulated from the tightening of global external financing conditions, and recent currency weakness and rising sovereign bond yields in the region will only add to... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico outlook, Brazil GDP, Colombia election Given the Fed’s hawkish shift and the recent sell-off in the Mexican peso, we now think that Banxico will step up the pace of tightening with a 75bp rate hike next week, to 7.75%. Elsewhere, in Brazil... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed adds to growing external risks The 75bp interest rate hike by the US Fed this week and expectations for further large hikes in the coming months will have ripple effects across the region. It is likely that Hungary's central bank... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The muted 0.2% m/m rise in industrial production in May adds to the evidence that the economy is slowing. But there is still little in activity data to suggest a recession is on the horizon, or to... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why didn’t the BoE go further and what next? In some ways, given its concerns about the weakening in the real economy, the Bank of England's decision not to follow the Fed and raise rates by more than 25 basis points makes sense. But with more... 17th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB has done the easy bit, harder work is to come This week, the ECB arrested the sell-off in peripheral bond markets without announcing very much at all, but there’s only so long that markets will be soothed by encouraging words about a possible... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Consumption to increase despite low confidence Despite consumer confidence remaining extremely low, we now think household spending in the euro-zone will edge up in Q2. Excess savings and a tight labour market have helped to cushion the blow from... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken further, domestic demand picking up While the Bank of Japan was clearly in no mood today to give any ground to the bond traders testing the ceiling of Yield Curve Control, it would be even less keen to effectively shut down the JGB... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s hot labour market, Sri Lanka’s tourism woes The Korean labour market is continuing to heat up, increasing the chances that the central bank will tighten monetary policy further over the coming months. Meanwhile, a renewed slump in visitor... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP target unattainable, shipping disruption China’s statistics office is adept at massaging GDP data. But with many of the indicators that feed into GDP showing year-on-year contractions in April and May, even it won’t be able to deliver... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
