UK economy grows 0.1% as services activity strengthens November’s output expansion was “undeniably encouraging”, said Ruth Gregory, economist at Capital Economics, who added that the UK government’s cost of living payments meant that households had more... 16th January 2023 · Financial Times
Asia Economics Weekly China rebound, Thai election, new currency forecasts Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year. As daily life in China returns to normal, spending at hotels... 13th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Disinflation takes hold in CEE, Russia’s budget pressures This week brought the clearest evidence yet that the disinflation process in Central Europe is underway as most economies experienced a broad-based easing of price pressures in December. This is... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Recession delayed not cancelled It’s starting to feel like a recession will never happen, but it will. Admittedly, the government may be absorbing more of the hit to national income from the surge in the cost of energy imports than... 13th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic outlook improving, but still poor The euro-zone economy held up better than we anticipated in Q4 and the outlook for the coming quarters has improved. But with high inflation set to continue to weigh on household incomes and the drag... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recent good news doesn’t preclude DM recessions The past month has brought a string of positive developments on the activity and inflation side. The biggest news has been China’s decision to throw in the towel on its zero-COVID policy, which... 13th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q4 contraction may have been avoided The euro-zone economy held up a bit better than we expected at the end of last year. On balance, the data point to GDP flat-lining or contracting only slightly in Q4. 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Nov.) The small 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in November (consensus -0.2% m/m, CE -0.3% m/m) suggests the economy did not contract in Q4 and is not in recession. Even so, it is too soon to conclude the economy... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Upgrade to 2023 China forecast and its implications Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our forecast for growth there from 2.0% to 5.5%. This means that global GDP growth will be stronger than... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Insights from Euromoney’s CEE conference Europe’s energy crisis, sky-high rates of inflation and Ukraine’s reconstruction were among the biggest topics of conversation at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European forum in Vienna this week... 12th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Runners and riders in Nigeria’s upcoming elections In the first instalment of our Election Watch series ahead of the late-February polls in Nigeria, we assess the economic policies proposed by key candidates. The elections offer a chance to depart... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update A faster-than-expected turnaround We had expected disruption from China’s reopening wave of COVID infections to weigh heavily on activity well into Q1. But there is mounting evidence that much of China’s population has already been... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) Mexico’s industrial sector stagnated in November as higher construction and utilities output offset a slump in manufacturing and mining. More timely survey indicators have continued to hold up well... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French pension reform could be agreed despite strikes Reform of the French pension system is notoriously difficult and it is possible that the proposals unveiled yesterday will be watered down or even withdrawn completely. However, on balance, we think... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
