Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Dec.) The rebound in industrial production in Turkey in December and the strength of retail sales in recent months point to an expansion of GDP in the order of 0.5-1.0% q/q in Q4. Activity will be disrupted... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) GDP contracted sharply in Q4 2022 and we think the economy will continue to struggle in the coming quarters as high interest rates, weak external demand and tepid consumption activity drag on... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi external position, PMIs, Egypt privatisation Recent data showed that Saudi Arabia recorded its largest current surplus since late 2014 in Q3 of last year as oil revenues boomed. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is recycling these surpluses into... 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Russia for December were relatively weak, but Q4 was a bit stronger than we had expected and the economy is likely to have expanded slightly... 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession or economic resurgence? The unexpected surge in payroll employment in January has led to claims of an economic resurgence that will force the Fed to keep hiking interest rates but, on balance, we still think the real economy... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook is less grim, but recession still likely Since the full effects of the previous surge in energy prices and the hike in interest rates have yet to be felt, we still think the economy will succumb to a recession this year. Admittedly, pandemic... 8th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s earthquakes The recent earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria are a human tragedy and foremost in everyone’s minds. Nonetheless, the financial markets will also need to bear in mind the economic cost and, to the... 7th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Tighter monetary policy starting to bite The latest business surveys suggest that the euro-zone will stagnate or suffer only a mild recession, but the money and credit data paint a much gloomier picture. Net lending was negative in December... 7th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) After proving resilient for most of 2022, German industrial production slumped in December, adding to the reasons to expect the economy to fall into recession. 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE’s energy crisis: looking beyond this winter The energy crisis in Central and Eastern Europe has lost some of its bite as natural gas prices have slumped and countries have made good progress in replacing Russian energy supplies. This has... 6th February 2023 · 25 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s retail sales data show that the sector ended 2022 on a weak note. We think total household consumption will fall in the first half of this year, pulling the economy into recession. 6th February 2023 · 2 mins read
