Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market will delay interest rate relief The August labour force release provided little justification for the RBA to renege on its pledge to keep interest rates unchanged at least until the end of the year. Not only is employment growth on... 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 24) The labour market and population data released today are consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will only lower interest rates in Q2 2025. 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Public demand limiting RBA’s scope to cut rates Even though state and federal budgets point to a sharp slowdown in public demand in 2024/25, our analysis suggests that the public sector will keep providing a sizeable boost to GDP growth. And if we... 18th September 2024 · 12 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will stick to hawkish message The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably stick to its hawkish message at its upcoming meeting. And while GDP growth is set to disappoint the Bank’s optimistic projections, it will take a clear... 17th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q2 2024) Although activity likely bottomed out last quarter, the ongoing weakness in private demand raises the risk that the RBA will cut rates sooner rather than later. 4th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) With transaction volumes moderating and inventory rising, we expect the Australian housing market to cool in months ahead. 2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Cap on foreign students could stymie growth in 2025 The Australian government is working to pass legislation that would cap international student commencements at 270,000 in 2025, a significant step down from its current level of around 400,000. While... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul. 2024) 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will look past buoyant public demand We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Employment growth probably weaker than reported We believe that employment growth isn’t as strong as the Australian Bureau of Statistics is reporting because net migration seems to have weakened more sharply than the ABS is assuming. While it will... 21st August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ likely to loosen faster than it has signalled When it kicked off its easing cycle this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a measured approach to cutting rates over the coming months. However, we think the Bank is understating the... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (August 2024) The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths when it comes to policy setting in the near term. With the New Zealand economy in a tailspin and inflation well on its way to target, the RBNZ... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jul. 2024) The slight uptick in the unemployment rate last month belies a renewed acceleration in employment growth. Accordingly, the data are unlikely to assuage the RBA’s concerns about a tight labour market. 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
