Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates only in November While the data released this week confirm that Australia's economy is cooling, it is far too early for the RBA to declare victory in its fight against inflation. Indeed, underlying inflation seems to... 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb. 24) 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb. 24) Headline Inflation in February once again came in below the expectations of both the analyst consensus and the RBA. But trimmed mean inflation unexpectedly saw a leg up, which could give the RBA pause... 27th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market complicates picture for RBA Although the RBA toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting on Tuesday, yesterday's frothy jobs report may well spur a reversal on that front. Indeed, the labour market appears to be holding up a lot... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 2024) The sharp drop in unemployment in February was likely a blip, rather than a trend. With job vacancies continuing to fall back, we suspect the unemployment rate will rise anew in the months ahead. 21st March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA tones down hawkish bias ever so slightly The RBA sounded a touch less hawkish at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will start to lower interest rates by August. 19th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Mar. 23) 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s sensitivity to Chinese demand rising again Easing trade tensions and the relative resilience of iron ore prices relative to prices of fossil fuels have once again lifted China’s importance as a destination for Australia’s exports over the last... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA on course for rate cuts in August We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The worst may be over for the Australian consumer National accounts figures released this week showed that subdued household spending continued to weigh on the Australian economy in Q4. However, with a recovery in real disposable incomes taking shape... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q4 2023) Although GDP growth last quarter was in line with what the RBA had expected, the Bank will take comfort from the fact that households continue to exercise spending restraint, while productivity... 5th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong capex growth to ease capacity pressures There are growing signs that restrictive policy settings are working to establish a more sustainable balance between demand and supply in the Australian economy. Indeed, inflation has continued to... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
