Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2024)

The RBA probably won’t read too much into the fact that annual wage growth stalled last quarter. A gradual loosening of the labour market should ensure that wage pressures do ease in the quarters...

13th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Market optimism for RBA rate cuts seems misplaced

We're sending this Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have largely shrugged off...

8th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

With RBA remaining hawkish, rate cuts will have to wait

Although the RBA left rates on hold today, it poured cold water on market expectations that it will loosen policy later this year. With the economy still running above its speed limit, we continue to...

6th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 2024)

6th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Could the RBA still hike rates?

Following the downside surprise in Australia's Q2 CPI data, investors are betting that rate cuts will be on the table before long. While we do agree that the RBA's next move is likely to be down, that...

2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)

Australian house prices gained a bit of momentum in July. However, leading indicators continue to suggest that the housing market will cool markedly in the months ahead. Even if house price growth...

1st August 2024 · 3 mins read

FX Markets Update

Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD

We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or...

31st July 2024 · 4 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable

The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin...

31st July 2024 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Q2)

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle

In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Antipodean central banks to part ways on policy

A new survey of businesses shows that New Zealand's retail industry is in dire straits. Given the sizeable contribution of retail trade to employment, the risk is that the labour market will...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Making sense of Australia’s two-speed housing cycle

Much of the recent resilience in Australia’s house price growth can be attributed to a handful of capital cities where the property markets have gone from strength to strength. We believe that there...

23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBNZ now likely to start cutting rates in August

Given the recent slate of weak economic data we now expect the RBNZ to start loosening policy in August, rather than in November as we were previously predicting. For one thing, timely activity data...

19th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: Could Q2 inflation push the RBA to hike again?

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DM central banks may not be done raising rates – a too-hot Australian Q2 inflation report on 31st July could push the RBA to hike at its meeting

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2024)

Although job growth remained healthy last month, it didn’t prevent the unemployment rate from rising anew. And we suspect the rise in joblessness has much further to run.

18th July 2024 · 3 mins read