Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stumbles at the start of 2019 The sharp fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI last month is consistent with a slowdown in industrial production growth to 2% y/y, from around 4% in 2018. This may be an early sign that EM... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s budget surplus, CBRT more hawkish The budget surplus recorded in Russia in 2018 has put the spotlight on austerity measures, but it actually looks like fiscal policy will provide more support to the economy this year than it did in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Another soft batch of PMI data from Central Europe suggests that the continued weakness of euro-zone industry is weighing heavily on the region’s export-led manufacturing sectors. On past form, the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Further evidence of a Q4 slowdown Data released over the past month suggest that regional GDP growth slowed from to 2.4% y/y in Q3 to a two-year low of 1.2% y/y in Q4. This was due mostly to the economic slump in Turkey, where... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) A weak batch of ESIs for January supports our view that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe will slow by more than more expect over the course of 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth slowing, rates rising GDP growth across Emerging Europe is likely to slow in 2019, and by more than most anticipate. Turkey’s economy will continue to suffer from the effects of last year’s lira crisis, while the slowdown... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Slump in Asian industry drags down EM growth Aggregate EM growth slowed to its weakest pace in two years in the middle of Q4, and more timely data point to further weakness. We expect the slowdown to continue over the course of this year. 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM export weakness to continue in 2019 EM export growth slowed sharply in November and the early signs are that the December figures will be even worse. Some of this was due to falls in commodity prices. But much of the weakness appears to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM debt risks The slowdown in the global economy has raised fresh concerns about rising EM debt levels. The risks posed by China’s credit boom are now well known, although mitigated by the nature of the lending... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown worsens, nervous MPCs A raft of weak activity and survey data released this week reinforces our relatively downbeat view on the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe this year. Slowing growth seems to be worrying some... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has EM exposure to a China slowdown fallen? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Outlook is not bright for euro-zone peripheral bonds We think that government bonds in the euro-zone “periphery” will fare quite poorly in the next two years – particularly in Italy and Greece – as growth disappoints and deficits overshoot expectations... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawks in Hungary, Erdogan’s enhanced economic powers Hawkish comments from Hungary’s MPC this week support our view that monetary policy will be tightened by more than is priced into markets. Meanwhile, emergency economic powers granted to Turkey’s... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are in the firing line in 2019? We expect EM currencies to weaken against the US dollar in 2019, with the South African rand and Colombian peso likely to fall by more than most. The Argentine peso and Turkish lira will probably be... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Brace for slowdown in 2019 Weak EM trade data at the end of last year is a sign of things to come in 2019. We expect that the combination of lower commodity prices and slower global economic growth will cause the US dollar... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
