Central Europe is one of the few parts of the world where central banks haven’t eased monetary policy recently. Indeed, we think that the focus is likely to remain on tightening, particularly in Poland and Hungary. Inflation is likely to remain above central banks’ targets, fiscal policy is being loosened and GDP growth is running at above 4%. One exception is the Czech Republic, where growth is much weaker and the central bank’s tightening cycle has finished. But even here, policymakers will probably not loosen policy until next year.
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