Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased in February, mirroring the broader improvement in investor sentiment towards the emerging world. But more timely data indicate that this was... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish lira stumbles, Russian and CEE rates The Turkish lira has been one of the worst-performing EM currencies this week which, in part at least, seems to reflect investors no longer buying the central bank’s hawkish rhetoric. Elsewhere... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around 2%-pts weaker over the next 20 years. Income... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation at post-financial crisis low EM inflation slowed to its weakest pace since the Global Financial Crisis in January and it will remain lower over the course of the year in most countries. This is likely to prompt policymakers to... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Turkey inflation data for February are unlikely to be enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later this week. We expect the... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Upturn in EM manufacturing won’t be sustained The EM manufacturing PMI picked up last month, but we think that growth in the manufacturing sector will still slow in the coming months. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central European exports, PMI weakness & Polish stimulus The breakdown of the Central European Q4 GDP figures released this week showed that the surprisingly strong growth rates were driven by a rebound in exports, which appears to be related to a one-off... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap External pressures keep frontiers in tightening mode The monetary tightening cycles that began last year in many of the large EMs are petering out fairly quickly. But in many of the smaller Frontier markets, interest rate hikes are still at the top of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? The lesson from Turkey over the last few years is that it takes time for political pressure on the central bank to have negative macroeconomic consequences. With this in mind, while recent... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s strong batch of ESIs suggest that resilient domestic demand is helping the economies of Central and Eastern Europe to cope with economic weakness in Germany. 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fiscal stimulus on its way Developments this month suggest that governments in parts of the region are embarking on fiscal stimulus to boost growth and prop up popular support. Recent policy announcements in Russia and Turkey... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Growth soft at the start of 2019 The Q4 EM GDP data released so far have generally been a bit stronger than might have been expected, in light of concerns about the health of the global economy. But more timely data suggest that... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weaker growth, central banks’ dovish turn Data published over the past week provided further evidence that the region’s economies slowed at the start of this year. This, coming alongside lower inflation, has resulted in a dovish shift by... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Central banks take a dovish turn The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in many emerging markets, combined with growing expectations for looser monetary policy in the developed world, has prompted a dovish... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why we’re sticking to our guns on EM equities EM equities’ flying start to the year has continued this week, but we are sticking to our view that they will fall over 2019 as a whole, as the darkening outlook for the global economy takes its toll... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
