Emerging Markets Economics Update Will fiscal policy support EMs in 2019? China’s government is loosening fiscal policy to cushion the slowdown and it looks like a handful of economies, mainly in East Asia, will also loosen the purse strings this year. However, more EMs are... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where are the risks greatest in EM equity markets? We think that EM Asian equities are set for more pain in 2019 despite their generally positive start to the year, and suspect that they will again be among the worst performers in the MSCI EM Index... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt risks building 2018 was marked by currency crises in Turkey and Argentina, but the risks of large currency adjustments elsewhere in the emerging world have diminished. Meanwhile, sovereign debt risks appear to be... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT to loosen policy, rapid CEE growth unlikely to last Further evidence this week that the Turkish economy is in the midst of a severe recession adds to the reasons to expect that the MPC will cut interest rates next week. Meanwhile, another batch of... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2019 hold in store for CEE? Weakness in the euro-zone and softer domestic demand will weigh on GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this year and our forecasts are below consensus. Looser fiscal policy should make... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) A strong batch of ESIs for December provided some positive news for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following the recent release of a poor set of PMIs and a raft of weak activity... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond rally to reverse, Turkish elections and rate cuts Investors pared back their expectations for interest rate hikes in Central Europe this week, but we still think that a fresh pick-up in inflation will prompt more monetary tightening than most... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further fall in Turkish inflation in December, combined with the weakness of the latest activity and the recovery in the lira, means that the central bank is likely to press ahead with a rate cut... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further slowdown The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month was fairly broad-based and supports our view that growth in the emerging world as a whole will slow this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s weak manufacturing PMI will strengthen the Turkish central bank’s case that monetary policy should be loosened. We think that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is more likely... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania to tighten purse strings, Turkey in recession The Romanian government’s measures to tighten fiscal policy next year, announced on Wednesday, support our long-held view that GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2019. Meanwhile, the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Softness in bond markets pushes back yield rises Scandinavian property yields are now set to mark time in 2019 before rising from 2020, despite slowing rental growth. Copenhagen industrial is our top pick for the region. Total returns will be higher... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for weaker growth in 2019 EM GDP growth lost momentum over the second half of 2018 and we expect this to continue next year as growth in Emerging Asia, notably China, and Emerging Europe weakens. 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fall in inflation gives central banks breathing space The fall in inflation across much of Emerging Europe last month was surprisingly sharp, which in part was due to lower oil prices but also (and more unexpectedly) a dip in food inflation. One... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we discuss the key implications of EM elections scheduled for 2019. Votes in Ukraine and Argentina – where opposition candidates could put IMF deals at risk – probably pose the greatest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM equities not likely to bounce back in 2019 EM equities have had a torrid year, and we doubt that things will get any better in 2019. Indeed, we forecast that the MSCI EM Index will end next year around 10% below its current level, a similarly... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
