Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (January) The final release of German HICP for January confirmed that the headline rate fell but, disappointingly, still didn’t reveal what happened to the core rate. That said, there was some evidence that... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Europe metals supply battered, but not entirely broken The sharp fall in European electricity prices sets the stage for a recovery in metals output across the region. As power prices are still historically high and unlikely to fall that much further... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The further rise in the Ifo in February confirms that the German economy may have been a bit more resilient than we had expected in Q1. But with the index still in recessionary territory and the drag... 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (February) 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of mixed signals on the global economy While not our base-case forecast, the recent resilience of service sectors and labour markets seem to have raised the chance of a “higher for longer” scenario for policy rates. That could be bad news... 21st February 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction output likely to keep falling The euro-zone’s Composite PMI was much stronger than expected in February, but it excludes the construction sector where prospects are weaker. Tighter financial conditions and softer demand in the... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) The ZEW indicators point to a further improvement in sentiment towards Germany and, along with other recent surveys, suggest that the economy is holding up better than we had anticipated. 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s chunky rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy will grow in Q1. With the labour market still very tight and price pressures strong, the survey will reinforce ECB... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB’s balance sheet run-off should be smooth Quantitative tightening and the repayment of TLTROs mean that the ECB’s assets are likely to decline by around one quarter by the end of 2024. We expect the repayment of TLTROs to have a negligible... 20th February 2023 · 17 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Sharpest fall in all-property values on record Capital value falls accelerated in Q4 as euro-zone all-property yields surged higher. And although rents increased in both offices and industrial, the outsized jump in yields meant euro-zone all... 17th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Has core inflation already peaked? A leading ECB dove argued this week that core inflation has passed its peak on some measures. However, these measures are distorted by Germany’s temporary transport subsidies last summer. Underlying... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update French wage growth to remain strong We think French wage inflation will remain much stronger than in the pre-pandemic period this year. This is not least because of the automatic adjustments to inflation of the minimum wage and... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Output & Trade Balance (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone industrial production and imports in December further highlights the weakening in the economy at the end of last year. We expect the economy to enter a recession this year as the... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) Confirmation that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to a crawl in Q4 does not alter our view that the region is now falling into recession. That said, we think the labour market will continue to hold up... 14th February 2023 · 2 mins read
