Capital Daily ECB decision is a test of the conundrum facing central banks The renewed sell-off in global bank equities today, centring on Credit Suisse, is evidence that concerns about the resilience of the banking sector are now spreading outside of the US. There are still... 15th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) The rise in industrial production in January was entirely due to strong growth in Germany and Ireland, with all other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to... 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: What does banking sector turmoil mean for March central bank decisions? 1678978800 Starting with the ECB today, some major central bank decisions are due in the shadow of recent banking sector turmoil.
Europe Commercial Property Update Unpacking our new euro-zone forecasts There were some surprises in the Q4 commercial real estate data from the euro-zone, in particular in how swiftly yields have risen. Taken together with changes to our economic view these imply further... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession or not, economy is set to suffer The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed that the economy stalled in Q4 last year and also revealed that domestic demand fell off a cliff. Data published so far this year point to continued... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update More pain ahead for Italian industrial The Italian industrial market saw its sharpest fall in capital values on record last year, owing to a surge in yields in Q4. But with valuations still stretched and investor demand weakening, we think... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate to peak at 4%, no rate cuts until H2 2024 We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 50bp next week and accompany that with new, hawkish guidance. Policymakers will probably be unable to agree numerical guidance, but we suspect that they... 9th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Event Euro-zone Drop-In: ECB March meeting preview 1678788000 With another 50bps rate hike at the European Central Bank’s March meeting looking like a done deal, all eyes will be on how policymakers signal the path ahead for monetary tightening.
Europe Chart Pack Q4 collapse in domestic demand a bad omen Recent evidence about the health of the euro-zone economy has been mixed. National figures released so far suggest industrial production rebounded in January but retail sales remained very weak. And... 8th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2022) Revised figures show that the euro-zone economy flatlined in Q4 last year and that domestic demand dropped sharply. There have been some positive signs in the past couple of months, but policy... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) The big rebound in German industrial output in January suggests that industry may continue to hold up well in the face of the energy crisis. However, with the renewed drop in retail sales pointing to... 8th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are risks from Germany’s trade links to China Germany is more vulnerable than most advanced economies to a reduction in trade with China both because of the scale of trade and the use of Chinese-made inputs to its large manufacturing sector. 6th March 2023 · 4 mins read
