Europe Commercial Property Outlook Slower yield rises but values to fall further as rents stagnate With valuations still highly stretched and rent growth likely to slow as the region falls into recession, we think capital values will fall further in 2023. While the 4.5% decline forecast at the all... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s banks, the ECB and pension reform in France There a plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Europe’s banks. While the renewed sell-off in bank equities on Friday show that it is too soon to sound the all clear, the latest comments... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Energy Update Clean tech race to hit EU coal and gas demand The EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act announced last week aims to keep the manufacture of clean technologies within the EU and shows that global fracturing will take place within blocs as well as between... 24th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The strong batch of euro-zone flash PMIs for March suggests that the economy expanded in Q1 and that both employment conditions and price pressures remained very strong. That adds to the reasons to... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2023) The strong batch of euro-zone flash PMIs for March means it is now all but certain that the economy expanded in Q1 while both employment conditions and price pressures remained very strong. With the... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: What are the risks around commercial real estate? 1680015600 A degree of calm has returned to markets, but investors remain nervous about where the next blow-up could occur – and attention is increasingly focused on commercial real estate. But are the c
Capital Daily Taking stock of the Swiss shotgun wedding Financial markets have greeted the second consecutive weekend bank rescue/resolution – this time in Switzerland – with cautious optimism. But there is still an enormous amount of uncertainty about... 20th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Banking sector turmoil – What next after Credit Suisse? 1679320800 Markets remain in a febrile state despite the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse and a joint central bank statement pledge to beef up dollar liquidity support. What will it take to rest
Capital Daily Falls in yields and equities may have further to run Despite a better day for financial markets yesterday, confidence among investors still seems fragile. Although we do not expect markets to remain quite so choppy, we think some of the key trends of... 17th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking turmoil clouds ECB rate outlook It is to soon to conclude that euro-zone banks will escape liquidity issues on the back of troubles at US regional banks and Credit Suisse. But there are some reasons for cautious optimism. With that... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of market moves amid the turmoil While the backdrop has shifted dramatically, we still think there’s a strong case for our existing forecasts of a further rally in long-dated bonds by the end of the year, and some near-term strength... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (February) The strength of wage growth and core inflation will reinforce ECB policymakers’ conviction that, provided the region’s banks don’t come under further sustained pressure, their tightening cycle is not... 17th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Banking stress raises another dilemma for central banks We are resending this Stress Monitor to include clients of our Global Economics Service. The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened... 16th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily ECB carefully stays the course The ECB successfully pulled off a particularly tricky tightrope walk today, maintaining its commitment to price stability without prompting more volatility in bank stocks or other markets. That said... 16th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB prioritising inflation fight Investors have taken today’s 50bp rate hike by the ECB as dovish, and the peak deposit rate now priced into markets is between 3% and 3.25%. We think the risks are skewed towards rates going higher... 16th March 2023 · 4 mins read
