Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMIs suggest that the economy expanded in Q1. They also point to further gains in employment and strong price pressures. With the turmoil in the banking sector having stabilised, this makes us... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Calm after the storm, but inflation still a headwind With the banking sector panic subsiding, attention is returning to the inflation outlook. And as core euro-zone inflation edged up to a new all-time high in March we think policymakers will remain in... 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (March) Policymakers at the ECB won’t read too much into the drop in headline inflation in March and will be more concerned that the core rate hit a new record high. So March’s consumer price data will do... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Pound a surprising beneficiary of banking concerns Even though equity prices in the UK have fallen further than in the US and the euro-zone since the US bank SVB failed and the European bank Credit Swisse was taken over, the pound has strengthened... 30th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
Capital Daily Stubborn core inflation may be a headwind for euro-zone bonds Persistent core inflationary pressures will, in our view, keep euro-zone sovereign bonds under pressure this year, at least relative to those in other major developed market economies. 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany & Spain Flash Inflation (March) The big falls in headline inflation in Germany and Spain should provide some relief for struggling households in the coming months. And core inflation in Germany may now have passed its peak. However... 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Mar.) The small decline in the EC’s economic sentiment indicator in March leaves it still pointing to an increase in GDP in Q1. Meanwhile, firms’ selling price expectations suggest that core inflation might... 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about the euro-zone’s banks? We doubt that the banking sector crisis which has hit US regional banks and Credit Suisse will morph into a sustained or systemic problem for the euro-zone’s banks. However, there may well be further... 28th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily European G-SIBs need a better RoE to justify a higher valuation While the shares of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) in Europe bounced today on the news that a buyer has been found for parts of the failed US lender, Silicon Valley Bank, their price... 27th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank lending very weak even before recent turmoil The February money and credit data show that even before the recent pressure on European banks, net bank lending was extremely weak and consistent with the economy contracting sharply. 27th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) The fifth successive monthly increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in March suggests that Germany is still benefitting from falling energy prices and easing supply problems but has yet to... 27th March 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar continues to see-saw on banking sector turmoil The US dollar had spent much of the week on the back foot amid a growing belief that banking sector issues might prove a largely US-specific problem. But that narrative, and price action, has (again)... 24th March 2023 · 9 mins read
