Europe Commercial Property Update German office values fall faster than after the GFC Early data indicate that German offices saw the steepest increases in yields on record in late 2022. And we think that with policy rates set to go higher, it is too early to rule out further rises in... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) December’s money and credit figures revealed that higher interest rates further dampened economic activity at the end of last year. Moreover, the drag on activity will continue to intensify this year... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 was better than we feared a few months ago but the economy excluding Ireland still flat-lined. As the data deteriorated towards the end of the quarter and... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank lending Survey (Q4 2022) Much like the latest money and credit data, the Q4 Bank Lending Survey painted a much more downbeat picture of economic prospects than the latest business surveys. Banks are tightening their lending... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Fixed-rate loans delay and reduce effect of higher rates The shift away from floating-rate to fixed-rate mortgages presents risks as well as benefits. It will protect homeowners who are lucky enough to have a long time remaining on their fixed rate contract... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Worse to come, but UK assets to outperform in 2024 While an improvement in appetite for risk has fuelled a strong start to 2023 by UK equities and sterling, we doubt this will remain a source of support as recessions in the US, the UK and the euro... 30th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The improvement in economic sentiment in January is consistent with the picture painted by other surveys. But the high level of firms’ selling price expectations shows that the ECB’s work is far from... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2022) The fall in German GDP in Q4 shows that the energy crisis started to dent activity at the end of last year. This pours cold water on the recent optimism about the prospects for the euro-zone and... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for euro-zone markets A streak of stronger-than-expected economic data in the euro-zone has given markets there a boost this year. But with much of the good news seemingly already discounted, and, in our view, a still... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy stagnating; inflation volatility ahead The recent run of better-than-expected activity data in the euro-zone only look good compared to previously dire expectations. The big picture is that the euro-zone’s growth prospects look bleak. Next... 27th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Get ready for a German inflation surprise in January The reversal of temporary subsidies and changes to weightings will probably push headline German HICP inflation back up in January. But the bigger picture remains that the headline rate will fall... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hawkish ECB will weigh on euro-zone investment Euro-zone investment contracted sharply in Q4 2022 and we think further interest rate rises will prolong this weakness throughout much of this year. But we expect a recovery in transactions towards... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending weak and savers locking up their cash December’s euro-zone money and credit data show that the effects of rising interest rates were starting to be felt. Households and firms shifted their money into longer-term deposits which are less... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
