UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct./Nov. 2023) The sharp fall in wage growth in October will probably further fuel investors’ expectations that interest rates could be cut as soon as the middle of next year and it leaves our forecast for rate cuts... 12th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Nov.) The fall in Czech inflation to 7.3% y/y in November means that the start of a monetary easing cycle at next week’s policy meeting is still very much a close call. But at this stage we think it’s most... 11th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Nov. 2023) The rise in the headline rate and slight fall in the core rate in November was broadly in line with the central bank’s forecast. So we think Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with a final interest... 11th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Russian inflation to 7.5% y/y in November is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months as the economy continues to overheat. We think this CPI release supports the... 8th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tusk vs. Glapinski heating up, Russia's policy troubles The debate around whether Polish central bank governor Adam Glapinski could be brought before the State Tribunal and be removed from his post took twists and turns this week. But at this stage the... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tide turning to earlier rate cuts, but BoE to cut last Investors now think the first interest rate cut will happen in June next year instead of August, with an 80% chance of a cut by May. Our forecast is that the Bank of England won’t cut interest rates... 8th December 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Why we’ve changed our ECB view We had been expecting next Thursday’s ECB meeting to be another non-event, but it now looks likely to provide some idea of how soon and how fast policymakers are willing to start cutting interest... 8th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Too early to call the bottom, with offices set for more pain A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests... 8th December 2023 · 35 mins read
BoE Watch BoE unlikely to fuel market rate cut expectations With the Bank of England almost certain to keep interest rates at 5.25% for the third policy meeting in a row on Thursday 14th December, the focus will be on whether the Bank provides any signals of... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
UK Economics Update Lessons from 2023 and forecasts for 2024 Even though we expect the economy to be weaker than the consensus in 2024, we think that lingering constraints on domestic supply will prevent wage growth and services CPI inflation from falling quite... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tide turns towards rate cuts in Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan recently reiterated the Bank’s line that “we will not hesitate to tighten monetary policy further if necessary” but the actual question is whether policymakers will hesitate... 7th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update One last hike to come at Norges Bank Despite the recent paring back of interest rate expectations across Europe, we think Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with one final 25bp hike next week – taking the policy rate to a peak of 4.50% –... 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
