Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we continue to think that the scope for monetary loosening ahead is relatively limited. While the consensus... 9th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German industry still has further to fall Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We see 2024 ending much better than it started for asset markets Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for... 8th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and point to regional activity strengthening at the end of 2023... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) The unexpected increase in Swiss inflation in December raises some doubt as to whether rates will be cut soon. However, we suspect that the headline rate will drop back sharply in January due to base... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Are we too downbeat on the economy in 2024? The economic news over the past week has highlighted three upsides to our forecast that the economy will stagnate in 2024. First, the fall in some mortgage rates to below 4% means the effect of future... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak end to last year does not bode well Data released this week showed that core price pressures in the euro-zone continued to fade at the end of last year as activity remained subdued. This supports our view that a weak economy this year... 5th January 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Lower interest rates pave the way for a stronger 2024 Our forecast of earlier Bank Rate cuts mean that mortgage rates will be significantly lower than we had anticipated this year, which will lead to a stronger recovery in demand from mortgaged buyers... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2024 Falling interest rates will herald the end of the commercial property downturn in 2024. However, owing to price declines in H1 we still think values will end the year lower. Our forecast for... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.5 in November to 46.8 in December was driven by the increase in the housing balance, while the commercial reading fell further. Looking ahead, we... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Dec. 2023) The big 1.1% m/m increase in the Halifax house price index confirms that falls in mortgage rates are translating into renewed increases in house prices. Given further recent falls in mortgage rates... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) The run of softer-than-expected news on CPI inflation and wage growth means we now expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner than before. Our forecast is that rates will be cut from 5.25... 4th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2023 key calls In another year of upheaval for commercial property in Europe, our forecasts were broadly correct in terms of direction, but underestimated the severity of the downturn. Some, though not all, of this... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Lending (Nov. 23) The rise in mortgage approvals in November was little surprise given the sharp drop back in mortgage rates since July. Given recent further falls in swap rates, mortgage rates are likely to continue... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Nov. 23) Net lending to commercial property increased for the ninth consecutive month in November, but that wasn’t reflected in investment volumes which dropped further. But throughout H1 2024 we expect... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
