Capital Daily Euro-zone PMIs, Spanish politics, and bond yields Euro-zone government bond yields have fallen further following the release of disappointing PMIs today. Given our pessimistic view of the economy, we suspect that they will generally end the year a... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy may only spend a quarter of EU Recovery Fund Italy has already accumulated so many delays in spending NextGenerationEU money that it will only be able to use a fraction of the funds and any boost to growth is likely to be much smaller than hoped... 24th July 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Boost to newbuild volumes over New home construction has been surprisingly resilient to weaker demand so far this year. But that partly reflects activity being brought forward before building standards were tightened in June. With... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker supply adds to Amsterdam office optimism Occupier demand in Amsterdam has been more resilient than we expected so far this year. In tandem with supply constraints caused by construction delays, this suggests that prospects for rental growth... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2023) July’s flash activity PMIs suggest that the resilience in activity has eased further and that domestic inflationary pressures are starting to slow faster. That supports our view that the Bank of... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2023) July’s euro-zone PMIs are consistent with our non-consensus view that the currency union’s economy will remain in recession. But they also suggest that the labour market will remain tight, keeping... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain election result The People’s Party won the most seats at yesterday’s general election but, even together with the far-right VOX, they achieved only 169 seats which leaves them seven short of a majority. With the... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE last to halt hikes and last to cut We think UK core inflation will ease to 2% by the end of 2024 as the effects of the rises in interest rates are felt. But the UK’s more persistent labour supply shortfall than elsewhere suggests this... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal pressures, Turkey’s policy shift on thin ice A raft of comments from senior policymakers at the Russian Ministry of Finance this week highlight the pressures that the public finances are under. For now, policymakers are responding by tightening... 21st July 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to hike again, Spain goes to the polls Data released this week support our view that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q2. Meanwhile, France’s government presented a plan to reduce its budget deficit next year but its plans are likely to... 21st July 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin industrial turnaround a sign of what’s to come After trailing the rest of Europe last year, the Dublin industrial market has had a change of fortune in 2023 as rent growth continued to improve. With industrial demand set to benefit from a... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Poland Activity Data (June) June’s retail sales and industrial production data out of Poland suggest that the economy held up relatively well last month, but we doubt that this is the start of a strong rebound in activity. We... 21st July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2023) June’s public finances figures revealed an unexpected undershoot of the OBR’s forecast for public borrowing, bringing some cheer for the government on a day when it has lost two by-elections. But with... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2023) The further increase in retail sales volumes in June suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But our view that interest rates will rise further, from 5.00% now to a peak... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Focus A preview of the EU natural gas market this winter While the wholesale European natural gas price is now close to pre-energy crisis levels again, we don’t expect EU gas consumption to rise in response. Rather, we think that EU gas consumption has... 20th July 2023 · 11 mins read
