Europe Economics Weekly More EZ stagflation ahead; hawkish central banks We think the euro-zone will experience a more severe case of stagflation than most expect, and inflation and survey data due next week are likely to support that view. Elsewhere, the SNB and Norges... 23rd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swiss prime offices to trail the rest of Europe Swiss offices have already seen the second sharpest price correction across the major European markets. And with stretched valuations set to face renewed pressure from rising bond yields, we think... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2023) June’s flash activity PMIs won’t do much to ease the Bank of England’s inflation fears, which suggests that yesterday’s interest rate rise to 5.00% won’t be the last. Our forecast is for rates to rise... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Weakness in both services and manufacturing sectors The fall in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI from 52.8 in May to 50.3 in June left it even lower than our below-consensus forecast. On the face of it, the index still points to a small expansion in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2023) The further rebound in retail sales volumes in May suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But we think it’s too soon to conclude the rebound in retail sales will be... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Reading the monetary tea leaves for clues on bonds A disparate range of global central banks have delivered their latest policy rate verdicts over the past 24 hours. We think there are four key points for investors to note . 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The fall and fall of the Swedish krona The rapid depreciation of the Swedish krona has pushed the currency down to its lowest ever level against the euro. Worse still, we do not think the krona is significantly below “fair value”, nor do... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT underwhelms with hike, but policy shift on track The 650bp interest rate hike by Turkey’s central bank today (to 15.0%) will underwhelm investors that wanted a faster and more aggressive monetary tightening. The currency has come under a bit of... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE bares its teeth, but needs to bite harder The 50 basis point (bps) interest rate rise by the Bank of England today, from 4.50% to a near 15-year high of 5.00%, is unlikely to be the last hike given the UK’s higher and longer lasting inflation... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (22nd June) 22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank will ignore “Beyoncé theory” and raise rates Some observers have suggested that the strength of Swedish inflation in May reflected buoyant demand driven by Beyoncé’s Stockholm concerts but the Riksbank is more likely to view it as evidence that... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB hikes by 25bp and signals more to come The 25bp rate hike announced by the SNB this morning was smaller than the 50bp hike we had predicted. But the accompanying statement and upward revision to inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank steps up the pace, more hikes to come Today’s 50bp rate hike by the Norges Bank, taking its policy rate to 3.75%, was accompanied by new hawkish guidance and projections. As a result, we have revised up our already above-consensus... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Poland Activity Data (May) May’s industrial production and retail sales data out of Poland were weaker than expected and are consistent with our forecast that GDP growth remained negative in year-on-year terms in Q2. Over 2023... 22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
