Canada Data Response GDP (May) May's GDP contracted by 0.2% m/m, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, thereby providing more evidence that the economy slipped into a recession in the first half of the year. With oil prices... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key housing markets won't defy gravity for much longer The Vancouver and Toronto housing markets appear to be enjoying a revival of late, in contrast to most other markets in Canada. But with labour market conditions set to deteriorate this year and... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market conditions set to deteriorate While the steady job gains from the household employment survey are often highlighted as a sign that the oil-induced recession in the first half of the year was an unusually mild one, closer... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 0.4% m/m increase in retail sales volumes in May, offsetting a similar decline the month before, suggests that most Canadian consumers remain confident about job prospects. But that could all... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy being dragged down by investment slump The slump in oil prices has already pushed the Canadian economy into a mild recession and things could yet go from bad to worse. Falling energy investment will hit both production and jobs, which will... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Oil price shock part II The latest renewed slump in world and domestic crude oil prices is another blow to the outlook for Canada's oil-dependent economy, which has already slipped into a mild recession. With the fallout... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Puzzling weakness in exports likely to persist The puzzling weakness in non-energy exports most likely boils down to a lack of competitiveness, even after taking into account the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Unless the value of the... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The slightly bigger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in June doesn't materially reduce the odds of an additional rate cut by the Bank of Canada later this year. Core inflation... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie? The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have been three of the worst-performing major currencies so far this year. Despite the fact that they have already fallen a long way, we expect them to... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The continued weakness in manufacturing sales volumes in May is further evidence that the non-energy economy is very unlikely to pull the economy out of its oil-induced slump anytime soon. Accordingly... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to cut rates again As we expected, the Bank of Canada lowered its key policy rate from 0.75% to 0.50% today, admitting that the economy fell into a mild recession in the first half of the year. We have been warning that... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.) The rate of house price inflation rose to 5.1% in June, from 4.6% in May, and the recent rebound in the home sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it may accelerate to 6.0% soon. The pick-up... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in investment could worsen in the second half The 2015 investment intentions survey suggests that real private and public investment will fall more sharply than most people realise this year. This is the strongest indication so far that, what... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) June's modest 6,400 drop back in employment, which follows the surprisingly strong 58,900 increase in May, should help to quell fears that the economy is tanking. Even so, with the much weaker... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Get ready for interest rate cut(s) Facing a larger than previously expected fallout from the oil price shock and a still misfiring manufacturing sector, there is a very strong chance that the Bank of Canada will cut rates from 0.75% to... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The unexpected widening of the trade deficit in May is further evidence that, after contracting in the first quarter, the economy probably shrank further in the second quarter. In other words, Canada... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
