Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) While February's headline inflation rate remained at 1.0%, the core inflation rate eased to 2.1%, from 2.2%. These figures by themselves won't sway the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy slowing sharper than headlines suggest Canada's economy continued to lose momentum in the final quarter of last year and the slowdown was only partly due to lower oil prices. Furthermore, the seemingly gradual slowdown in headline GDP... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) January's larger than expected decline in manufacturing sales, which partly reflects the petroleum industry downturn, suggests that the economy started the year poorly. The balance of risks around our... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar will remain down for a long time The slump in crude oil prices has changed the Bank of Canada's game plan and, we fear, could prove to be the trigger that bursts the housing bubble, derailing the economy in the process. Under these... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February's modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate, to 6.8% from 6.6%, reflects the early negative effects of a downturn in the mining sector. Accordingly, this supports our... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) The Teranet-National Bank index shows that house price inflation slowed to 4.4% in February, from 4.7% in January, partly due to the abrupt slowdown in housing activity in regions hit by the slump in... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Additional interest rate cuts still in the pipeline The Bank of Canada's decision to hold rates unchanged at 0.75% last week will have convinced some that there isn't another rate cut in the pipeline. Nevertheless, we still think we could see another... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade & Building Permits (Jan.) The jump in Canada's trade deficit to a two-and-a-half year high of $2.5bn in January, from $1.2bn, was principally due to a price-related 23% m/m drop in the value of crude oil exports. 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2014) The 2.4% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP looks encouraging enough, but this is merely the calm before the storm. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada will still cut rates further Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signalled last week that he thought the January interest rate cut was enough insurance against downside risks for the time being. That confirmed our existing view... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The decline in the headline CPI inflation rate to only 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, was entirely due gasoline prices, which fell by 26.9% over the past year. Excluding food, energy and other volatile... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids deflation... at least for now This week we expect to learn on Thursday that headline CPI inflation fell to 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, principally because of the slump in energy prices last month. With crude oil and retail... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec 14) The 2.0% m/m fall in the value of retail sales in December suggests that Canadian consumers have taken flight, perhaps fearful for their jobs in the wake of the fallout from the energy price collapse... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What could the Bank of Canada do beyond rate cuts? The Bank of Canada's recent focus on the dangers to the economy of low oil prices may well prompt it to cut interest rates again. At only 0.75% now, however, the scope for additional interest rate... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's stronger than expected gain in manufacturing sales suggests that GDP grew more strongly than we had assumed in that month. We now estimate that fourth-quarter GDP expanded by 2.4%... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again The slump in oil prices has dramatically altered the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Following the Bank of Canada's surprise move last month to cut its policy rate to 0.75%, from 1.00%... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
