Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada doubles down on growth outlook The Bank of Canada's policy statement last week showed that it isn't willing to fold on its optimistic growth predictions, despite being dealt a bad card in the first quarter. Instead, it decided to... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The rise in the official core inflation rate to 2.4%, from 2.1%, was a surprise, but the details showed that this was largely due to pass-through effects from the lower Canadian dollar, rather than... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What is the relative valuation of euro-zone equities? The stock market in the euro-zone is much more attractively valued than in the US based on a comparison of cyclically-adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) ratios. However, its valuation is much less... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 0.75% The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 0.75% this morning, showing confidence that, after stalling in the first quarter, the economy will rebound in the second quarter and never look back. We... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) February's larger than expected decline in manufacturing sales, which partly reflects some temporary shutdowns at auto assembly plants and bad weather, is further evidence that first quarter GDP... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Mar.) Although house price inflation rose to 4.7% in March, from 4.4%, the existing home sales-to-new listings ratio suggests that any further pick-up is likely to be short-lived. 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker currency will partly cushion hit from low oil prices The Canadian dollar, which has slumped in response to low oil prices, weakening domestic fundamentals and an easing in monetary policy, probably still has further to fall. An even weaker currency... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Employment rose by 28,700 in March, more than anyone expected, though not by enough to reduce the jobless rate from 6.8%. The details, however, were less impressive. Even so, the odds of a rate cut by... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Oil price slump will drag economy down The Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey shows that, while some firms are benefitting from a weaker Canadian dollar, the slump in crude oil prices is having a greater negative impact on the... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly January's soft GDP likely the calm before the storm While the modest decline in January's GDP was a better result than most economists had feared, we suspect that this may just be the calm before the storm. The continued collapse in oil & gas drilling... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US corporate bonds should weather Fed tightening Although Fed tightening could dull investors’ appetite for risk, its onset has not tended to push up the spreads of US corporate bonds over Treasuries much in the past. We expect a similar outcome... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) The decline in Canada's trade deficit to C$1.0bn in February, from an upwardly revised C$1.5bn, reflected an improvement in the terms of trade. Export and import volumes both fell, supporting our view... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) Although the 0.1% m/m decline in January's GDP was more mild than most expected, the first signs of a slump in oil and gas drilling points to more weakness ahead. As things stand now, we estimate the... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Impact of oil price shock bigger than most think The collapse in domestic drilling activity, triggered by the slump in oil prices, which has been compounded by another year of unseasonably bad winter weather, has been severe enough to indicate that... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no hurry to cut rates The speech earlier today by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and his remarks during the press release shortly afterwards suggest that the Bank isn't in any hurry to cut rates further. Accordingly... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy likely to struggle for longer than others expect After slowing in the final quarter of last year, the economy appears to have lost considerably more momentum this quarter, with GDP growth likely to be no better than 1.0% annualised, below the... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
