Canada Economics Update Economy unlikely to rebound from oil slump The Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey shows that not only is the fallout from the slump in oil prices still taking a heavy toll on the economy, but the pick-up in non-energy sectors... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fast escape from oil slump unlikely With the fallout from the oil price slump still taking its toll on the economy and manufacturing hobbling along, growth prospects look only marginally better now than at the start of the year. For the... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The unexpected 0.1% m/m decline in April's GDP and slight downward revisions to earlier figures suggest that the economy likely slipped into a recession in the second quarter. With the fallout from... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates again? Although there is limited scope to reduce interest rates further, the hit from lower oil prices on the economy is taking a heavier toll than widely acknowledged. Without any offset from the non-energy... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising jobs vacancy rate a lagging indicator The increase in the national jobs vacancy rate over the past year suggests that the economy has withstood the oil price shock. Closer examination, however, reveals that this measure lags economic... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) While May's inflation figures are consistent with the Bank of Canada's forecast, the incoming data suggest that the real economy is still underperforming. If economic growth undershoots the Bank's... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The larger than expected decline in April's manufacturing sales suggests that the recent big gains in factory jobs were perhaps a head fake and that the economy began this quarter on a weak footing... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rebound won't revive economy The recent rebound in crude oil prices isn't enough to make new oil sands projects profitable again. With the list of cancelled projects growing with each passing day, we expect falling business... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (May) The rate of house price inflation edged up to 4.6% in May, from 4.4%, and the recent rebound in the existing home sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that is where it might remain over the rest of... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bounce back in household spending won't be repeated After a weather-related pause in the first quarter, household spending is soaring. Faster income growth and a potential drop in the saving rate could see second-quarter consumption grow by more than 5... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter rebound unlikely to be convincing After a dismal turn in the first quarter of the year, the economy should perform somewhat better in the second quarter, but the pace of growth is likely to be unspectacular. With growth of no more... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The fact that the economy generated a surprisingly strong 58,900 jobs in May suggests that it is holding up against the oil price shock better than we had expected. This supports the Bank of Canada... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Flagging economy will prompt more rate cuts The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) While April's slight pick-up in exports volumes might prompt suggestions that the economy began the second quarter on a stronger footing, the sharp decline in imports indicates that domestic demand... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower loonie's influence on core inflation waning While headline inflation has fallen sharply due to lower energy prices, the boost to core inflation from the lower Canadian dollar may fade sooner than most realise. Wholesale price inflation, which... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
