Canada Economics Update Rising business confidence unlikely to convince BoC The Bank of Canada's third-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed that more businesses are betting on an improving US economy and a cheaper loonie to lift Canada’s economy out of its oil induced slump... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A Trans-Pacific Partnership deal wouldn’t improve outlook The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, even if it was ratified soon, would be unlikely to improve Canada’s near-term economic prospects. The initial effects of the new trade agreement... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The labour market continued to withstand the oil shock in September, churning out a moderate gain of 12,100 jobs. This wasn’t enough, however, to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.1%... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) While the sharp decline in export volumes in August was disappointing, the big gains in earlier months mean that net trade still contributed positively to third-quarter GDP, which we now estimate grew... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Hope springs eternal Market commentators and policymakers are optimistic that the latest monthly GDP data are a sign that the economy has turned the corner and that better times lie ahead. The details, however, reveal... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) The stronger than expected showing in July’s GDP, which reflects volatility in oil sands output, suggests that the risks to the Bank of Canada’s Q3 GDP growth forecast of 1.5% annualised lie to the... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A mild case of Dutch disease The recent speech by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz on commodity prices and Canada’s economy attempted, albeit unconvincingly, to play down the significance of the slump in commodity prices to... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The modest 0.2% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in July, together with the slight downward revised figures for June, suggest that the pace of consumer spending growth slowed in the third quarter... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy not out of the woods Although the majority of forecasters have downgraded their forecasts substantially for GDP growth this year, most remain overly optimistic about the underlying strength in the economy. The economy... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The unchanged 1.3% annual headline inflation rate in August and the drop in core inflation to 2.1%, from 2.4%, are in line with the Bank of Canada’s assumptions, so they won’t change its neutral view... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Manufacturing now faces an even greater challenge Despite the rebound in sales volumes over the summer, Canada’s export-orientated manufacturing sector has struggled repeatedly to sustain any gains in over the past two years or so. Even though US... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The rate of house price inflation rose to 5.4% in August and the elevated sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it will accelerate to 6.0% before year end. The national average continues to be... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Additional rate cut still seems like a good bet The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.5% last week was largely as expected in light of the recent news that the real economy returned to growth in June... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada stands pat for now The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.50% today was largely as expected given that the economy apparently returned to positive growth in June. But we still... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some cautionary thoughts on June’s GDP The widely talked about 0.5% m/m gain in June’s GDP doesn’t convince us that the economy is on the path to recovery. Close examination of the data reveals that nearly half of this growth was due to... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) August's employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the public sector. This is more evidence supporting our view that the economy likely returned... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
