Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to cut rates next week We expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 0.50% at next week’s policy meeting and provide few indications that additional cuts will be needed this year. Nevertheless, we still think that a third... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The narrowing of the trade deficit in July indicates that the economy began the third quarter on a solid footing. This supports our view that, after suffering a mild recession in the first half of the... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2015) The 0.5% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, following a downward revised contraction in the first quarter, confirmed that the economy slipped into a technical recession in the first half of... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recovery from recession looking less clear cut Further declines in commodity prices, droughts and weaker business confidence indicate that the economy is struggling to escape the mild recession that began in the first half of the year. We still... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Sinking commodity prices more bad news for Canada The turmoil in global financial markets, particularly the renewed weakness in commodity prices, is more bad news for Canada’s struggling economy. The timing of the Federal election in October may... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Don’t bet on further big falls in the Canadian dollar Markets still appear to be speculating on further declines in the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar but, after a 20% decline over the past 12 months, we believe that there is little scope for any... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) Although July's annual core inflation rate nudged up to 2.4% from 2.3%, the Bank of Canada likely couldn't care less. With the economy in a mild recession and falling oil and other industrial... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy struggling to escape recession Since oil prices first began to fall last year, Canada’s economic performance has gone from mediocre to dismal, culminating in a mild recession in the first half of this year. With oil prices tumbling... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recession debate losing its focus Although the economy might only be suffering the mildest of recessions, the bigger and far more important point often lost in the debate is that the economy is clearly underperforming its growth... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jun.) June's smaller than expected rebound in manufacturing sales values, which was even weaker in volumes terms, provides more evidence that the non-energy economy is struggling to lift the economy out of... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) Although the rate of house price inflation remained at 5.1% in July, the recent rebound in the home sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it may yet accelerate to 6.0%. This mainly the strength... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing construction boom likely to end in bust The latest housing start figures don't fully reflect the relatively stronger pace of building permits, an indication that home building may accelerate further in the near-term, even as signs point to... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Renovation tax credit would only worsen housing excesses The Conservative campaign pledge to introduce a new home renovation tax credit if elected this autumn is possibly more misguided than the NDP and Liberal pledges to raise taxes during a recession... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Employment increased by 6,600 in July, more evidence that the recent declines in output haven't been severe enough to induce employers to slash jobs. For the time being that's comforting. But if the... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) The surprisingly large narrowing in June's trade deficit was driven by a rebound in export volumes and is a positive sign for the economy. Considering the mixed performance of exports lately, however... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing shortage nothing more than a myth A housing shortage has been determined by the housing industry as the key explanation for record high house prices. While this interpretation appears to have caught on in certain circles, the broader... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
