Africa Economics Update External strains abate, but pockets of risk remain While external risks have subsided across much of Sub-Saharan Africa in recent quarters, pockets of vulnerability remain. External (and, as a result, debt) vulnerabilities look most acute in Ethiopia. 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s post-election policy direction, Ethiopia crisis spirals Next week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in South Africa is likely to provide an early signal that the government is scaling back its fiscal consolidation plans following the ruling ANC party’s... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA local elections shrink political capital for austerity The ANC’s poor showing in South Africa’s local elections this week may strengthen the hand of factions within the party that want to push back against fiscal consolidation. This tilts the risks... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped back last month, pointing to a further slowdown in the sector’s already weak recovery. Persistent headwinds will probably keep manufacturing activity subdued. 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana struggling with debt, oil price winners and losers The sharp rise in Ghana’s sovereign dollar bond yields this month suggests that investors are coming around to our view about the country’s worrying debt trajectory. Meanwhile, the rebound in oil... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.0% y/y in September, soft underlying price pressures and a fragile economic recovery mean that policymakers will only normalise monetary... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly FX orthodoxy in Nigeria? Strikes in SA, Ethiopia’s conflict Comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system, but there is no evidence that... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drop in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria, to 16.6% y/y in September, will ease pressure on the central bank to raise rates and allow policymakers to focus on supporting the economic recovery... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Aug.) South Africa’s hard activity data for August point to a bumpy recovery following a large hit to the economy in July, adding to reasons to think that interest rates are unlikely to be raised imminently... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Signals from the SARB, Nigeria’s humdrum budget The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Review published this week put monetary policy normalisation back in the centre of attention, and it now seems that policymakers are unlikely... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt data disclosures, SA fiscal buffer evaporating Reports suggesting that many developing countries, including some in Africa, have larger external debts to China than officially reported reinforce concerns about a lack of transparency. At the very... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI softened last month, pointing to a slowdown in the rebound from the hit to activity in July from tighter virus containment measures and violent unrest. Supply... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s debt problem: muddling through Ghana’s government is likely to slip behind on its fiscal consolidation plans in the coming years and the public debt-to-GDP ratio will probably continue to rise. While we think that the authorities... 27th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Vaccine tides turning in SSA? Evergrande reverberations This week brought the prospect of an improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa’s vaccine supplies, but the region is still likely to struggle to catch up with the rest of the world in the global vaccination... 24th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB to keep loose policy stance to bolster recovery Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today and concerns about lasting economic damage from the pandemic and recent unrest appear to be growing. Against a backdrop... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 4.9% y/y in August but the temporary factors behind the rise are unlikely to worry policymakers. Subdued core price pressures and the slow economic... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
