US Economics Update US government debt unlikely to lose its appeal The news that China’s share of US Treasury holdings has fallen to a 12-year low, alongside the surging Federal budget deficit, has prompted the usual warnings that the US will struggle to find buyers... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in December means that the sector was weaker over Q4 as a whole than we (and probably the statistics office) thought. As a result, there’s a... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Why we are more positive on agriculturals Oversupply has been a major headwind for many agricultural commodity prices in recent years. But we think that, in many cases, stocks will start to be drawn down in 2019, which should give a lift to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP First Estimate (Q4 2018) If there’s a silver lining from the mounting signs that the uncertainty caused by Brexit is holding back GDP growth, it’s that the economy could enjoy a decent rebound if a Brexit deal is agreed. 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: Election offers chance for big policy shift On Saturday, Nigerian voters will face a choice between two radically different policy options. A win for opposition leader Atiku Abubakar would boost local markets, but he would probably struggle to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have intervened little in FX markets last month, suggesting that the renminbi is not facing much downward pressure at present. However, with the economy likely to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where to weather another storm in EM equities We think that the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities will prove temporary, as concerns about global growth intensify. We expect the healthcare and consumer staple sectors to be more... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland & Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) We think that inflation in Switzerland will fall below zero by the middle of the year, so the SNB is likely to stick to its very dovish policy stance. By contrast, we think that inflation in Norway... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Capital Economics Financial Conditions Indices We expect financial conditions to tighten further this year in major advanced economies reflecting, but also exacerbating, slower economic growth. To monitor levels of stress in the financial system... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guedes’ ambitious pension bill, Banxico statements Details of Brazilian Finance Minister Paulo Guedes’ pension reform unveiled this week are impressive, but political realities could yet scupper these plans. Elsewhere, despite the hawkish statement... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly 20 years of ZIRP This week’s “shunto” spring wage negotiations got underway against an inauspicious backdrop, with corrected official data showing that real wages didn’t rise at all last year. Next week, Japan’s zero... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Iron ore to be in the spotlight next week The return of Chinese investors could lead to a sharp rise in the price of iron ore next week, given the likelihood of significantly lower Brazilian supply. However, the prices of other industrial... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market stumbles along House price growth has slowed to a near standstill, while mortgage approvals are falling. Much of that reflects the high level of house prices, although Brexit uncertainty is increasingly taking its... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Euro-zone corporate bonds likely to underperform US peers 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from this week’s EM central bank meetings The fall in oil prices and shift in interest rate expectations in the US and Europe seem to have brought EM monetary tightening to an end. While most central banks aren’t in a rush to loosen policy... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian GDP controversy, CEE slowdown The much stronger-than-expected Russian GDP growth figure for 2018, released this week, led to accusations that Rosstat is manipulating the figures, but we think that these data actually paint a... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
