China Economics Update Expanded US tariffs strengthen case for policy easing The US is moving ahead with plans to impose a 10% tariff on an additional $200bn of imports from China. This will add to existing headwinds on China’s growth and is likely to trigger further policy... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war not the only headwind to Asian growth In the event that rising trade tensions lead to a significant fall in US imports from China, it would have a sizeable impact, not just on China, but also on other countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New, more pessimistic, forecasts for EM assets We argued at the start of this year that the good times for emerging market (EM) assets were likely to come to an end after a stellar 2017. As it happens, in many cases they have already fallen... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates on hold and likely to stay there Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at today’s scheduled monetary policy meeting, but it shifted to a more dovish tone under its new governor. While we are forecasting no... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What do tariffs mean for inflation? The tariffs announced so far are unlikely to boost Canadian inflation by much more than 0.1% pt, while the effects on economic growth should also be small. We therefore doubt that they will have much... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Trade strains build The main impact for EMs so far from rising global trade tensions and risk aversion has been on financial markets rather than on economic growth. But the resulting tightening of financial conditions –... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK financial markets still banking on a soft Brexit The betting markets are assigning a greater probability to an early general election in the UK in the wake of high-profile resignations in the Conservative Party since the Cabinet met at Chequers on... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to rising cost pressures The NFIB survey and JOLTS figures released today show that labour market conditions are still tightening. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is the Baltic Dry Index on a tear? The recent rally in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of freight costs is somewhat surprising given rising protectionism. However, it appears that much of the rise can be explained by robust demand for coal... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Sterling stabilises; investors still counting on a “soft” Brexit 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rising protectionism poses a real threat to cobalt Profit-taking and deteriorating investor sentiment were the main drivers of the recent fall in the price of cobalt. As such, for now, we are sticking with our end-year forecast of $100,000 per tonne... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (May) Although GDP came in a touch below the consensus expectation in May, it still looks likely that quarterly growth in Q2 will be in line with the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) expectation. As a... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (Jun.) The latest drop in the SACCI Business Confidence Index strengthens our view that South Africa’s economy remained weak in Q2. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jul.), French & Italian Ind. Prod. (May) The further decline in German ZEW investor sentiment seems to reflect concerns about the impact of possible protectionist measures. But May’s industrial production data for France and Italy support... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to make of Erdogan’s new economic powers? Moves over the past 24 hours by Turkey’s President Erdogan to consolidate his power is likely to result in pressure for looser monetary and fiscal policy, but this will ultimately come at the cost of... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s decline in core inflation won’t stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates in September. But with price pressures building only slowly, the subsequent tightening cycle will be very slow. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
