UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) Uncertainty and the already high level of prices kept house price inflation subdued in May. Looking ahead, we expect these factors to keep price growth weak to the end of 2019 – at just 1% y/y. 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) Turkey’s economy returned to growth in Q1 but the tightening of financial conditions over the past couple of months has probably resulted in a renewed downturn. This reinforces our view that the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market (Apr.) & Tokyo CPI (May) The rebound in industrial output in April coupled with upbeat forecasts for May suggests that the manufacturing sector will return to growth in Q2. However, we still expect the labour market to... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After a number of surprising builds in US commercial crude stocks, last week’s small drawdown perhaps signals that a summer fall in stocks may be looming. If we are right, and stocks continue to... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fall in rates won’t trigger a surge in mortgage demand The recent fall in the 10-year Treasury yield means the 30-year mortgage rate is set to drop to 1½-year lows over the next few weeks. But we doubt that will trigger another jump in mortgage... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Hurdles ahead for Ramaphosa The inclusion of several investor-friendly ministers in South African president Cyril Ramaphosa’s new cabinet has been interpreted as a sign that the government may renew its push for reform. Local... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US farm aid could distort production The Trump administration’s latest farm aid package, announced on 23rd May, should provide some short-term relief to the ailing US farming sector. But direct payments to farmers could exacerbate the... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rise in Moscow office yields to be short-lived With Russian government bond yields expected to continue falling this year, we think that the rise in Moscow office yields in Q1 will prove temporary and that they will end the year at 9%, down from 9... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Say hello to our new payroll model Our new model points to a 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, although we anticipate a more pronounced slowdown in employment growth over the next few months. The unemployment rate is expected... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2019) The 0.2% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q1 was, in part, the result of temporary factors including a sharp drop in iron ore output. But the early signs are that growth in Q2 has been very weak too and... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Bank to lay the groundwork for further easing Policymakers are likely to make two significant changes at their meeting next Thursday. They will probably announce that they expect to leave rates at present levels until at least mid-2020, rather... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese budget falls short, more slippage from Bahrain The negative market reaction to Lebanon’s 2019 budget suggests that investors are coming round to our view that the government will need to pursue debt restructuring in the coming years. Fiscal woes... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian survey data point to small pick-up in growth A recent improvement in the survey data from Russia suggests that, following an extremely disappointing Q1, the economy should undergo a modest recovery over the next few quarters. 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Fragmented Danish politics won’t change fiscal stance Denmark’s forthcoming election has revealed a number of cracks within traditional party groupings which could complicate the coalition-forming process. But regardless of which parties end up in... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does five more years of Modi mean for India? Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has secured another stunning victory in India’s general election. The key priority for Mr Modi in his second term should be to implement reforms to develop the manufacturing... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
