Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2019) The first-quarter weakness in GDP growth won’t convince the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates, since the Bank knew that temporary disruptions would weigh on the economy. Nevertheless, if we are... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump tariffs pose a growing threat to the outlook President Donald Trump’s shock announcement of tariffs on Mexican imports could be challenged by Congress, but the possibility that both Mexican and Chinese imports might be subject to a blanket 25%... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly GDP growth to fall back in Q2; Danes go to the polls This week was dominated by Q1 GDP data releases, which surprised on the upside in both Switzerland and Sweden. But while the Swiss outcome was a welcome sign, the Swedish figure masked domestic... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) The sharp drop in GDP growth in Q1 looks all the more perplexing given that various other indicators suggest a much milder slowdown last quarter. Nevertheless, the data will seal the deal on another... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungarian stimulus, Ukraine & IMF, Turkey’s double-dip The fiscal stimulus package unveiled in Hungary this week adds to reasons to think that the economy will grow more quickly than most anticipate over the course of this year. Meanwhile, positive... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB heading to Vilnius, inflation to drop back This week saw a fresh escalation of the tensions between Italy and the European Commission, and the publication of some fairly downbeat survey data. Combined with the very low inflation data we expect... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow in 2019 The relative scarcity of Brent crude and an abundance of WTI have led to a persistently wide price spread between the two oils. However, we expect enhanced pipeline capacity in the US and somewhat... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe driven by domestic demand The full breakdown of Q1 GDP data for the economies of Central Europe confirmed that domestic demand remains the main driver of growth, although there was a surprisingly large boost from net trade in... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the impact of Trump’s tariffs There’s plenty of uncertainty about whether the tariffs on all US imports from Mexico announced last night by President Trump will be introduced and rise to the full 25%. The impact of the starting... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No change in households’ appetite to spend Reassuringly, following the raft of weak survey data released this week, consumer credit growth held up well in April. And with the labour market healthy and interest rates only likely to rise... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy may soon be considered riskier than Greece The spread between the yields of 10-year government bonds in Greece and Italy has fallen sharply following the latest European Parliament elections. We now forecast that it will turn negative... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New Finance Minister faces delicate balancing act Nirmala Sitharaman, who has just been selected to replace Arun Jaitley as Finance Minister, faces a delicate balancing act in her new role. On the one hand, she will want to display fiscal rectitude... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) April’s strong rise in house purchase mortgage approvals more than reversed March’s fall. But we doubt that signals the start of a sustained recovery in lending. 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) April saw a sharp reversal of the large increase in net lending in March. With uncertainty prolonged and yields starting to rise, we think that net lending will be subdued this year. 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy struggles to maintain its pace, race for No. 10 The economic news for Q2 so far has been pretty poor. And we wouldn’t be too surprised if Q1’s expansion is the fastest rate of growth that the economy can muster for some time. Meanwhile, the ever... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) Consumers appeared unfazed by the political chaos, with the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence rising to a fresh eight-month high in May. But with the economic fundamentals of consumer spending... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
