Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Focus turns to problems in region’s smaller economies Balance sheets in MENA’s largest economies have improved in recent years, but those in some the smaller economies remain very fragile, something that the markets are now paying attention too. Bahrain... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to look for in Argentina’s new IMF deal With Argentina reportedly set to announce a new and improved IMF credit line later today, in this Update we outline what investors should look out for in the deal. 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Zinc prices to weaken again in 2019 In recent days, the price of zinc has rebounded a little after plummeting over the summer. In this Metals Watch we will discuss why we think that any rally will prove short-lived. A slew of new mines... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brighter times ought to lie ahead for the yen The Japanese yen is the only “major” currency to have fared worse than the US dollar since the middle of August. Nonetheless, we think that its fortunes will improve against the greenback. Our... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy vulnerable to rate hikes Economic growth looks set to remain healthy in the near term, which will prompt the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates twice more. But the Bank is underestimating both the extent to which... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Aug.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase edged down in August, leaving lending at the bottom end of the range that has been seen over the last few years. With interest rates rising and no sign of a... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prospects for Dutch retail rents revised lower Changing shopping patterns and pockets of new supply in both Amsterdam and Rotterdam have meant that Dutch high street rents have not performed as well as might be expected given the strong consumer... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: Fiscal policy needs to tighten The ECB’s loose monetary stance isn’t compatible with Slovakia’s advanced stage of the business cycle and it looks like the government will respond by tightening fiscal policy to prevent the economy... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Turmoil in Argentina underscores policy challenges The surprise resignation of Argentina’s central bank governor, Luis Caputo, and nationwide strikes – in protest against President Macri’s austerity plan – underscore the difficulty of fixing the... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French 2019 Budget will support domestic demand The draft French Budget for 2019 confirmed that the Government intends to tighten underlying fiscal policy a little. But several of the planned measures should serve to stimulate private spending... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Further slowdown likely We expect the slowdown in world trade growth to continue next year as global demand weakens. Meanwhile, US-China trade tensions have risen – both countries imposed further tariffs on each other’s... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed, rather than ECB, policy likely to boost the euro next year 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC shifts tone (again) Nigerian policymakers struck a hawkish tone today, but we doubt that rate hikes are on the cards. Inflationary pressures are probably not as worrying as Governor Emefiele seems to believe. Kenyan... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Jul.) The FHFA and Case-Shiller both reported a small rise in house prices of 0.2% m/m in July. That continues the run of weaker house price gains seen since the spring. Higher mortgage interest rates are... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book: London’s downturn set to persist In line with our expectations, housing transactions in London are falling, while house prices are on a gradual downward trajectory. Even so, house prices are still very high and with interest rates on... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) Growth in global steel production slowed in August to 2.6%y/y, but the bigger picture is that it has expanded by a rapid 5.4% y/y in the first eight months of this year. However, we think that growth... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
