UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Some of the drop in September’s GfK/NOP consumer confidence survey can be put down to worries over Brexit. But provided a deal is stuck, we do not think this marks the start of a lasting trend and... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle not over yet August’s rise in inflation and signs of weaker capital inflows swayed Egypt’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold last night but, if we are right in expecting inflation to drop back over the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Signs point to softer logistics demand in Spain Spain’s strong economic recovery has driven higher levels of demand for logistics space. But with manufacturing output slowing and the prospect of weaker export growth ahead, occupier demand is likely... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Sep.) & Danish GDP (Q2, 2nd est.) Despite rebounding in September, the KOF Economic Barometer still suggests that Swiss GDP growth is set to slow over the coming months. And with inflation very weak, we expect the SNB to keep interest... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The bumpy road to Brexit: a primer There are now only six months left to negotiate the deal under which the UK will leave the EU and move into a transition period. This Update lays out five key questions and answers on what still needs... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Alumina prices to tumble Alumina prices have jumped in recent months on supply-side concerns. We think that the current supply disruptions will be resolved and we expect prices to fall by end-2019. 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How bad is Brazil’s consumer slowdown? The slowdown in Brazilian retail sales growth in the last few months looks alarming, but there are reasons to think that any weakness in overall consumer spending will be more modest. 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily BTPs to remain under pressure even if budget passes without fuss 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Shifting policy mix points to economic slowdown Boosted by the fiscal stimulus, GDP growth is still on track to be a solid 2.8% this year but, as that stimulus fades and the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, we expect growth to slow to 2.2%... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: How a default could unfold Zambia’s debt situation is deteriorating rapidly, and concerns about hidden debts mean that the situation could be much worse than it appears. Given low debt servicing costs, a missed payment is... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong employment gains set to continue We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 220,000 in September, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and average hourly earnings posting another decent monthly gain. That would be enough to... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed still going it (almost) alone We think the Fed is likely to raise interest rates three more times by the middle of next year. By 2020, however, we suspect that Fed officials will reverse course and cut interest rates in response... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households squeezed by rising debt servicing costs Households’ debt service costs rose to 14.2% of incomes in the second quarter, the highest since 2008. The recent rise has been driven entirely by higher interest rates. Moreover, policy rate hikes... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth weakening in Q3 Having picked up last quarter, activity data for July suggest that aggregate EM GDP growth weakened at the start of Q3. More timely survey and hard data for August paint a mixed picture, but overall... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Aug.) The weakness of underlying capital goods shipments and goods exports in August means that, even though inventories will still make a big positive contribution, we now forecast that third-quarter GDP... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s revised IMF deal The larger-than-expected increase in the size of Argentina’s revamped IMF credit line reduces debt rollover risks and is likely to lead to a rally in local markets when they open later today. The... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
