Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) September’s falls in the Swiss and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs leave them still pointing to strong growth in the sector. But it is in Sweden that price pressures seem to be strongest. 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The rebound in the manufacturing PMI in September suggests that the sector will no longer drag on growth in Q3. What’s more, the export orders balance recovered much of last month’s sharp fall... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) Mortgage approvals rose in August, but lending is still broadly flat on an annual basis. Looking ahead, with house prices set to stay very high relative to incomes and interest rates rising, our... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.), Manuf. PMI (Sep.) August’s further fall in euro-zone unemployment adds to evidence that wage growth is likely to rise further in the coming months, supporting the case for gradual ECB policy normalisation. But there... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Aug.) Net lending to property increased strongly in August. However, the details show that the increase was driven by lending for standing property, while net lending for development declined for the fourth... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) August’s household borrowing figures provided further signs that consumers’ appetite for unsecured borrowing is waning. But the slowdown is arguably a welcome development since it eases concerns that... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falls in China’s PMIs do not bode well for prices The downturn evident in China’s PMI readings for September is consistent with the recent weakness in industrial metals prices. The authorities have started to ease policy, which should start to... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The continued fall of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September underlines the fact that conditions remained tough in Q3. While we think the economy probably exited recession, growth was very weak... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy to gather momentum Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery gathered pace in Q2 and we think that GDP growth will accelerate further over the coming quarters as oil output rises and fiscal stimulus supports stronger activity in... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates, tightening cycle not over yet The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked interest rates by a further 100bp on Saturday and made clear in its policy statement that tackling the country’s mounting external imbalances remain its priority... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The sharp drop in Turkey’s PMI last month chimes with other very weak survey data and adds to the evidence that the economy has entered a deep recession. Elsewhere, big falls in the PMIs from Central... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The September PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost momentum in Q3. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders further supports our view that the recent... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM local currency bonds not out of the woods While the recent shift towards tighter monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) is likely to continue, this is largely priced in to markets already. But we think that local currency government... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & IMF, Brazil’s fiscal woes, Mexico-US deal The market reaction to Argentina’s revamped IMF deal suggests that, while investors believe that sovereign default risks over the next year or so have receded, they remain elevated further out... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update BTP yields likely to rise further, but contagion risk low Italian bonds have come under renewed pressure after the government announced plans to loosen fiscal policy by more than markets anticipated over the coming years. We think that Italian bond yields... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
