Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still has some slack Russia’s recovery doesn’t appear to have used up the spare capacity in the economy and we estimate that there is an output gap of about 1% of potential GDP. That means there’s scope for GDP to grow... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The surprisingly large 0.3% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in August seems to be due to a temporary halt in production at one of the country’s petroleum refineries, which should have... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recovery in EM commodity currencies unlikely to last Increases in the prices of industrial commodities have helped to drive a rebound in some emerging market (EM) currencies since early September. But that rebound is already showing signs of faltering... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Sep.) September’s fall in the headline construction PMI does not alter the fact that construction activity has improved taking Q3 as a whole. Current demand conditions also appear to have improved, but... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) House price growth held firm at 2% y/y in September. And on a regional basis, the South of England tended to underperform the rest of the UK. Looking ahead, we expect that regional trend to continue... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further slowdown in EM manufacturing growth The fall in September’s EM manufacturing PMI painted a gloomy picture and adds to the mounting evidence that growth in parts of the emerging world faltered in Q3. What’s more, data at the granular... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Surveys weaken at the end of Q3 The fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in September supports our view that global growth peaked in Q2. We think growth will slow further over the next two years as the US and China lose... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The small decline in the headline ISM manufacturing index last month from a 14-year high in August still leaves it at an unusually high level, but it is difficult to square with the slowdown in global... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the new Nafta, Amlo and receding policy risks The announcement of a trilateral trade deal with the US and Canada removes one major source of uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s outlook. The focus will increasingly shift onto the policies of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is rate lock-in weighing on home sales? Households electing not to move to avoid giving up a record low, fixed mortgage rate provide one potential explanation for the slowdown in home sales in recent months. However, the available evidence... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update New trade deal unlikely to prevent 2019 slowdown While the macroeconomic implications of replacing NAFTA with USMCA are minor, the diminished risk of US auto tariffs is good news for the Canadian economy. The effective removal of that threat could... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s GDP growth forecasts are far too optimistic The economic assumptions underpinning Italy’s budget forecasts look over-optimistic. As a result, while the Government expects the public debt ratio to fall over the next few years, we think that it... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Supply prospects take centre stage Supply-side developments were the key driver of most commodity markets this week, but they are pushing prices in opposing directions. In the oil market, supply concerns sent Brent crude to a 46-month... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
