US Chart Pack Shutdown clouds the near-term outlook The Federal government shutdown has made it harder than usual to judge how the economy is performing, but the data that have been released have been fairly upbeat. The surge in payroll employment and... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Investors’ worries about global growth likely to get worse 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs now less exposed to a China slowdown? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Strong mortgage demand over the past couple of weeks indicates that the sharp fall in existing home sales in December will soon be reversed. But a slowing economy, weakening house price expectations... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Does the Fed have the tools to fight the next recession? There are good reasons to believe the next recession will be modest, which means that, even though the nominal interest rate would probably hit the near-zero lower bound again, the Fed should have the... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro puts trade ahead of fiscal reform at Davos Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro’s headline speech in Davos today suggests that opening up the economy to international trade will be a major priority, something that would boost the economy’s long... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) November’s sharp fall in manufacturing sales partly reflected some temporary disruption, so sales probably rebounded in December. Nevertheless, echoing the weakness seen in many other countries, the... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi’s successor likely to be more hawkish Whoever becomes the next ECB President is likely to be more “hawkish”, and perhaps less effective, than Mario Draghi. That may not matter if the economy recovers from its recent soft patch, allowing... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Monetary policy hinges on election result Nigerian policymakers held their key rate at 14.00% today, and reiterated their support for the closely managed FX system. The controversial FX regime will almost certainly remain in place, unless a... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Fresh slowdown on the cards The region’s recovery is set to falter in 2019 and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Low oil prices shouldn’t cause major balance sheet strains in the Gulf, but tighter fiscal policy and... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has EM exposure to a China slowdown fallen? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook World poised for slowest growth in a decade Global growth looks set to fall to its weakest pace since the financial crisis as slowdowns in the euro-zone and China continue and the US soon joins the mix. Against that backdrop, fears of a surge... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) & Public Finances (Dec.) The labour market figures for November were reassuring as they showed no sign of any hit to firms’ hiring from Brexit. And with pay growth also strong, households remain well placed to increase... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most at risk from a sharp slowdown in China? Weaker growth in China is already weighing on exports from the rest of Asia, and a further slowdown in the economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of the region. A slump... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2018) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey shows that consumers’ and firms’ demand for credit is softening, adding to the evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) A soft batch of December activity data suggests that GDP growth slowed a touch at the end of last year. Over 2018 as a whole, it appears that the Polish economy grew by a robust 5%, but the slowdown... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
