Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) In advanced economies, monetary and credit conditions remain supportive. But bond issuance has been declining sharply in recent months, and credit growth in China is still slowing. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The January PMIs for Emerging Asia make for grim reading, with the headline number falling across the region. Meanwhile, the weakness in the new export orders component and a further slowdown in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The slump in the Caixin manufacturing PMI reading in January to its lowest since February 2016 paints a much bleaker picture than the official PMI reading released yesterday. With the headwinds from... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices have now fallen 7.6% from their peak and the pace of declines in recent months leads us to believe prices may now fall 15% from peak to trough. We believe such a large downturn would... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) The sharp fall in December’s labour force and employment followed unusually strong gains in previous months and should not be a cause for concern. However, the unemployment rate may be close to a... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Italy in recession? The recession in Italy last year appears to have been due to a combination of (temporary) disruption in the car sector and a (perhaps less temporary) decline in confidence among consumers and firms... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Policy paralysis While it is guaranteed that the Monetary Policy Committee will leave interest rates at 0.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 7th February, the accompanying Inflation Report may provide some crucial... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Eskom debt risks overstated, but tough choices ahead Fears that troubles at South Africa’s public power firm will lead to another downgrade of the state’s credit rating seem overdone. Over the long term, however, the utility is not sustainable. Securing... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A dovish Fed won’t keep the US$ down if the S&P falls Although we expect the US federal funds rate to end 2020 lower than it is now, we don’t think that the dollar will decline this year. The reason is our bearish view of the global economy. 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) New home sales surged 16.9% m/m in November, but activity is likely to level off in 2019. While mortgage rates are set to drop back, a slowing economy will weigh on buyer sentiment, and that will keep... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political turmoil puts debt burdens under the spotlight Frontier dollar bonds have rallied this month, due partly to improved risk appetite, but also progress on IMF deals (Ukraine and Sri Lanka) and the political news flow (Venezuela and Lebanon). But it... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Venezuela at a tipping point Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds have rallied strongly over the past few weeks as investors appear to be betting on a swift regime change and a smooth debt restructuring, but the markets risk... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q4 & 2018 World Gold Council Demand Trends Gold demand from the official sector soared to its highest level since 1967 last year as central banks became increasingly keen to diversify from dollar assets. But, we expect the big story for 2019... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Shifting out of normalisation mode Signs of weakness in the global economy seem to have prompted a significant change of tack from central banks. Even in the US, where growth has so far held up well, the Federal Reserve appears... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November’s fall in GDP appears to have been followed by further weakness in December and January. With economic growth set to slow sharply this year, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to follow through... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
