Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks nudged up, despite a fall in net imports and a rise in refinery activity. Although US product demand remains robust, we expect it to ease back later in 2019 as the economy starts to... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falls in overseas PMIs a concern for the UK It’s possible that the falls in the activity PMIs in January are overstating the extent of the Brexit-related weakening in actual GDP growth. However, the fact that the UK PMIs haven’t fallen further... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Equities likely to falter soon, whatever happens at Trump summits 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit to $49.3bn in November, from $55.7bn, suggests that trade made a small positive contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but only because imports... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Troubling times for Belgian retail Belgium’s retail sector is under significant pressure from both cyclical and structural forces. As a result, we expect rents to fall again in 2019 and yields to tick upwards slightly. 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) A drop in mortgage interest rates to a nine-month low in January helped boost mortgage demand. But the jump in applications for home purchase is already unwinding. Given a slowing economy and lack of... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weakness focused in the euro-zone and Asia World GDP growth held up well in Q4, but there is clear evidence in surveys and other timely indicators that the global economy took a turn for the worse at the start of 2019. The weakness has been... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The softer-than-expected Russian inflation figure for January, of 5.0% y/y, is likely to temper some of the central bank’s hawkish rhetoric when the Board meets on Friday. Given the central bank’s... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Scope for some EM rate cuts even if risk premia rise We expect EM risk premia to rise this year as global growth slows, something which has often been associated with EM central banks raising interest rates. But big currency falls and surges in... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US dollar likely to benefit from safe-haven demand We expect a slowdown in the US and the rest of the world to put renewed pressure on global stock markets this year. If we are right, we suspect that the dollar would get a boost, as it did late last... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Loonie’s strong run unlikely to be sustained A softening economy, slow wage growth and a drop back in oil prices are all reasons to doubt that the loonie’s recent strong run will be sustained. We see the currency declining to $0.72 this year. 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Dismal retail figures not a foretaste of a wider slump A sharper than expected drop in retail values in the latest MSCI Quarterly Index has led us to revise down our forecast. But retail woes are in large part specific to the sector and we don’t expect... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US growth to slow even if Fed has stopped tightening Even if the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates sooner than we originally envisaged, we doubt that will prevent a marked economic slowdown this year. After all, that dovishness was partly prompted... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Early signs point to weak start to 2019 The first raft of South African data suggest that growth remained soft going into this year. But we think that growth will pick up later this year as inflation eases and confidence returns. 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rates hikes in Iceland looking less likely The Central Bank of Iceland had hinted only a few weeks ago that interest rate hikes were likely at the start of this year, but the recent economic data have been weak enough for it to hold fire today... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
