Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surveys point to contagion from euro-zone weakness Manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, released on Friday, dropped sharply in January, suggesting that the recent weakness in the euro-zone is spilling over to its neighbours. Next... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 304,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in January was partly offset by a downward revision to the December gain, but still illustrates that economic growth remains solid and that the government... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament hits Brexit back to May Parliament hit the Brexit ball back into May’s court this week, leaving us with no clearer picture of how Brexit might unfold than we had this time last week. But beneath the bouncing Brexit headlines... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Allure of property to keep investment strong in 2019 With risk-free rates expected to stay low, the continued attractiveness of commercial property returns means that investment in 2019 likely to be close to last year’s record level. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s budget surplus, CBRT more hawkish The budget surplus recorded in Russia in 2018 has put the spotlight on austerity measures, but it actually looks like fiscal policy will provide more support to the economy this year than it did in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wilkins keeps quiet on rate hikes, GDP contracts Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins this week outlined the Bank of Canada’s thinking on wage growth. But by failing to repeat the Bank’s normal mantra about raising interest rates further, what... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q4 rebound, immigration boost The final few releases of December spending and output data have provided reassurance that Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4. But the early signs for the current quarter are not at all... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) Even though Brazilian industrial production rose by a slightly better-than-expected 0.2% m/m in December, the sector was a drag on growth over Q4 as a whole. The services sector seemed to fare a bit... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The developing global slowdown has caused the UK manufacturing sector to weaken despite evidence that activity is being supported by some stockbuilding ahead of Brexit. The upshot is that there is... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Mfg PMIs (Jan.) The increase in underlying inflation in the euro-zone in January is a rare piece of good news for the ECB. However, core inflation remains a long way below the ECB’s near-2% target and, given the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan rates will remain on hold, but cuts elsewhere Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate unchanged this week, and we think that they will hold rates over the remainder of the year. Peers in Angola and Ghana – who cut this week – will probably... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rebounding rupiah, Pakistan-IMF talks breakdown The continued rebound in the rupiah means that further interest rate hikes by Bank Indonesia (BI) are unlikely in the near term, but we think it is too early to call an end to the central bank’s... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China slowdown is a headwind for prices The latest weak PMI data underpin our forecast that China’s economy will continue to slow in the coming months, which we think will weigh on the prices of most commodities, but especially the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could leasehold reforms raise house prices? Plans to limit the creation of new leaseholds, as well as to cap ground rents, are unlikely to raise newbuild house prices. Meanwhile, developers could see a small hit to their margins, at least in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Manufacturing PMIs in South Africa and Nigeria both pointed to weak growth in January. Forward-looking measures, however, support our view that growth in South Africa will pick up later this year. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Another soft batch of PMI data from Central Europe suggests that the continued weakness of euro-zone industry is weighing heavily on the region’s export-led manufacturing sectors. On past form, the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
