Capital Daily Analysts’ more downbeat S&P 500 EPS forecasts still too upbeat 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2018) The stronger-than-expected Russian 2018 GDP growth figure of 2.3% suggests that Rosstat has made significant upwards revisions to the quarterly growth figures for the first half of last year. Based on... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer spending to pick up in Germany The weakness of German consumption growth last year resulted partly from problems in the auto industry and partly from slowing real household income growth. Spending growth will probably accelerate a... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German household spending to pick up The weakness of German consumption growth last year resulted partly from problems in the auto industry and partly from slowing real household income growth. Spending growth will probably accelerate a... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Recent optimism unlikely to last Commodity prices have generally had a positive week, boosted by the US-China trade talks and the dovish tone adopted by the Fed at its FOMC meeting. However, the strong US employment report on Friday... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack New year bounce to lose momentum Signs that the Fed was adopting a more dovish tone weighed on the US dollar in January, but boosted the prices of riskier assets, including commodities. However, we expect signs of slower global... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stumbles at the start of 2019 The sharp fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI last month is consistent with a slowdown in industrial production growth to 2% y/y, from around 4% in 2018. This may be an early sign that EM... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Shifting down a gear Markit’s manufacturing PMIs for January add to evidence that the world economy is in the midst of a considerable slowdown and that the risk of a euro-zone recession is rising. The US remains a... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed capitulation won't prevent economic slowdown In a remarkable U-turn, the Fed appears to have abandoned plans to continue gradually raising interest rates it set out only six weeks ago. The markets unsurprisingly welcomed this dovish shift, but... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in January provides further reassurance that economic growth has remained solid at the beginning of 2019. We still expect a combination of weaker global... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch current account surplus to remain high In our view, the Netherlands’ huge current account surplus, at around 10% of GDP last year, is unlikely to fall much anytime soon. Household saving will stay high, the government budget will remain in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela’s lessons from history, Vale impact Venezuelan dollar bonds have continued to rally this week on hopes of a swift political transition, debt restructuring and economic overhaul, but history suggests that this could prove optimistic... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi to weaken again, banks boost capital buffers Progress in the US-China trade talks and the dollar’s fall following the US Fed’s dovish policy statement this week pushed the renminbi to a six-month high. But we think that pressure on the currency... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates to fall despite cut in Fed MBS holdings The reduction in MBS held on the Fed’s balance sheet is, for now, set to continue in 2019. But while the announcement of MBS purchases in late 2008 led to a sharp drop in mortgage rates, we don’t... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
