Africa Chart Pack Africa: Most economies weak at turn of the year The latest figures suggest that Africa’s key economies stumbled in late 2018 and early 2019. Growth in South Africa probably slowed in the final quarter of last year (though it remained strong by... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US monetary policy outlook points to more upside for Treasuries 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slump in technology exports to weigh on Asian growth The slump in Asian exports late last year was mainly due to a sharp fall in demand for electronic products, which most likely reflects a turn in the sector’s inventory cycle. The poor prospects for... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Households able to spend, but not yet willing A strong labour market, rising real wages and more supportive fiscal policy should mean that households will be in a pretty good position over the next two years, even if interest rates rise. And once... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) Preliminary Q4 GDP figures from Mexico were better than expected, but showed a sharp slowdown in growth from Q3. We still expect growth to accelerate this year and our forecast for a pick-up to 2.5%... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) The uncertainty around Brexit may have weighed on household borrowing in December. But stronger finances should allow households to continue to spend even if borrowing remains subdued. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Jan.) The further drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in January adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy got off to a slow start to 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) A weak batch of ESIs for January supports our view that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe will slow by more than more expect over the course of 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) After falling sharply in November, house purchase mortgage approvals fell once more in December – consistent with our weak outlook for lending. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal is agreed by the end of... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.) With capital and rental value growth expected to slow further in 2019, it seems unlikely that willingness to lend will pick up. As such, the softness in net lending is likely to continue. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF & Swedish Econ. Tendency Indicator (Jan.) January’s surveys suggest that growth has slowed sharply in both Switzerland and Sweden. The SNB will see this as supporting its ultra-accommodative policy. But for the Riksbank it creates downside... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on May's Brexit "Plan B" Support for Brady’s Brexit amendment in the House of Commons this evening is good result for Theresa May but is arguably not the best news for the near-term outlook for the economy and the pound as it... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Composition of the Fed’s balance sheet matters too With the “patient” Fed set to leave interest rates unchanged, attention has shifted to its plans for balance sheet normalisation. But focusing on the terminal size of the balance sheet misses an... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexican interest rates to fall by more than most expect Mexican inflation has been stubbornly above Banxico’s 2-4% target over the past two years, but we think it will fall back within this range by year-end. And with the Fed’s tightening cycle near its... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets appear to be mispricing LatAm political risks We think that the reactions in bond markets to Brazil’s and Mexico’s new leaders have gone too far. Investors in Brazil look overly optimistic about President Bolsonaro’s ability to turn the public... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Consumers unlikely to spend their gasoline windfall The drop in gasoline prices in recent months is good news for households’ purchasing power, but we doubt they will spend all of their windfall. In fact, limited scope for further strong house price... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
