Asset Allocation Update Answering your questions about the effects of R* on markets Following the release of our new analysis on real equilibrium interest rates (R*) last month, we held an online Drop-In last week and in-person Roundtable events with clients yesterday to discuss our... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Event US Drop-In: October CPI and the Fed rate outlook 1699974000 Shortly after the release of the October CPI report, our US Economics team held a client briefing all about the October report and the inflation and growth outlooks and how they’ll shape Fed policy
FX Markets Update Déjà vu all over again for the dollar? The US dollar’s struggles over the past month or so are reminiscent of the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year, but a similar slide over the coming months looks unlikely. Instead, we continue... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Business investment to stagnate Business investment had so far been resilient to higher interest rates, but growth stalled in the third quarter and there are three reasons why we think that’s a sign of things to come. 8th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2023) After their weakest month in 28 years, there were signs that mortgage applications for home purchase bottomed out at the end of October. Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped 9.1% m/m across... 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Shifting correlations may also be driving Treasury term premia One factor that may have contributed to higher Treasury term premia, as posited recently by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in connection with the Quarterly Refunding, is a shift in the... 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Still plenty of scope for ‘supercore’ inflation to fall The recent stickiness of the Fed’s preferred measure of ‘supercore’ inflation mainly reflects temporary factors rather than ongoing tightness in the labour market. The upshot is that we still expect a... 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions ease following post-SVB squeeze The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey suggests that, while they remain tight, credit conditions have eased a little since the run of regional bank failures earlier this year prompted the... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update A corollary to the Sahm rule With the unemployment rate rising, the Sahm rule will probably be triggered soon. That will prompt claims a recession has started but, since that rise is due to increased labour supply as much as it... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily High-yield credit spreads may rise again We think the risks to the “goldilocks” view now being discounted in markets are skewed towards a bigger slowdown in the US economy than is currently discounted, driving credit spreads up over the... 6th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Risk of forced home sales is rising There are increasing signs that the most leveraged borrowers are struggling to refinance their mortgages with traditional lenders. The small but meaningful number of insured mortgage holders who took... 6th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A goldilocks Employment Report for US bonds and equities We think today’s big moves in markets in the wake of October’s US Employment Report are a sign of things to come over the next twelve months or so. 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fourth quarter bringing renewed slowdown There is now mounting evidence that the economy is set for a renewed slowdown in the fourth quarter and that inflationary pressures from the labour market continue to ease. Although markets have... 3rd November 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly In recession Employment edged up in October but the broad-based weakness of GDP growth, the depressed business surveys and the rapidly weakening housing market all suggest that the economy is in the early stages... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
