Global Markets Update How equities might fare as tightening cycles end Although monetary tightening has been a drag on equities over the past year or so, we don’t think the end of rate hikes means the stock market is set for big gains. 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US mega-cap stocks are in need of some more friends The S&P 500 has posted solid gains in 2023, but that has largely been due to surges in a few “mega-cap” stocks. This is a trend that we doubt can continue for very much longer. 18th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales fell back towards their recent lows in April, not helped by a very tight inventory. The high cost of a new mortgage is acting to discourage homeowners with a low fixed-rate... 18th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Growing case for another Bank of Canada rate hike The rapid turnaround in the housing market and the upside surprise to CPI inflation in April have raised the case for another interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada, which we now judge is slightly... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update When will interest rates start to fall? Inflation is now on a downward trend and interest rates are at, or very close to, a peak. But central banks will only cut interest rates once there are clearer signs that underlying price pressures... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Homebuilders have turned their attention to finishing off the large number of homes under construction rather than starting new ones, keeping single-family starts close to their recent lows in April... 17th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr.) Solid gains in retail sales and manufacturing output in April indicate that the economy remains resilient to the impact of higher interest rates and tightening lending standards. That said, real... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The renewed acceleration in the monthly changes in CPI-trim and CPI-median in April leaves us doubting our view that the Bank of Canada will be ready to cut interest rates as soon as October. 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (May) House prices rose by even more than we anticipated in April and the sales-to-new listing ratio points to further gains ahead. Housing starts also jumped last month, but the rising inventory of newly... 15th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus A closer look at the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge The resilience of PCE core services ex-housing inflation is only partly due to the strength of labour market conditions, and other factors are likely to play an important role in driving it lower over... 15th May 2023 · 15 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) Net commercial real estate (CRE) lending slowed sharply once again in April. Lending against all commercial sectors turned negative for the first time in nearly six years, and with little in the way... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Lending standards tightening, but only modestly The Bank of Canada’s first-quarter Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) showed a sharp tightening of mortgage lending standards, but we already know that has not been enough to prevent a resurgence in... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Sticky core inflation; debt ceiling stand-off continues The April CPI release showed core inflation still remains elevated, but that won't prompt the Fed to resume hiking interest rates when the debt ceiling stand-off looks set to go down to the wire early... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
