US Chart Pack Direct economic effects of CRE rout will be limited We expect rising interest rates and structural headwinds to trigger a deep rout in commercial real estate. The impacts on the real economy will be mostly indirect via the impact on small bank lending... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr.) House prices edged up in March and the jump in the sales-to-new listing ratio implies they will rise further this quarter. With affordability still very stretched, we assume that there will be a... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Persistent UK inflation unlikely to preclude lower Gilt yields While we think investors are correct to price in more persistent UK inflation, we think a sharp decline in core inflation next year will allow the Bank of England to cut rates by more than most expect... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Falling margins to help bring inflation down The recent undershooting of CPI used vehicle prices relative to wholesale auction prices appears, at least partly, to reflect a squeeze on dealer margins as demand has cooled. The upshot is that we... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Why is inflation higher in the UK? Inflation in the UK has stayed higher than elsewhere as the UK has endured the worst of both worlds – a big energy shock (like the euro-zone) and labour shortages (even worse than the US). Admittedly... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of our Treasury and S&P 500 forecasts We think investors’ expectations for the Fed funds rate will fall a little by the end of this year, which will push the 10-year Treasury yield a bit lower by end-2023. But we doubt lower “risk-free”... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Base effects helped to pull headline inflation lower in March, but there were also encouraging signs in core inflation, as the average three-month annualised gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median fell to a... 18th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A tale of two listed real estate markets While US equity REITs are a long way from discounting the “best of times” for US commercial real estate (CRE) over the coming quarters, listed real estate stocks in Europe appear braced for something... 17th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem pushes back against rate cut expectations Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem used his press conference this week to push back against expectations for interest rate cuts later this year. That partly reflects the Bank’s less downbeat... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Western and big six metros set for 25%+ price falls We have made substantial downgrades to our metro-level forecasts this quarter. The outlook for office-based employment growth has been hit by tech sector struggles, weighing on demand in many western... 14th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation strong, but activity weakening The strength of the March CPI data may be enough to persuade the Fed to squeeze in a final 25bp rate hike at the early-May FOMC meeting. But with mounting evidence that economic growth is weakening... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m fall in manufacturing output in March provides more evidence of a loss of economic momentum going into the second quarter. 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) After a bright start to the year, manufacturing activity weakened in February. While that was partly due to temporary factors that are likely to be quickly reversed, the surveys point to a challenging... 14th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales fell by 1.0% m/m in March, adding to the evidence that the strong start to the year was partly due to the unseasonably mild winter weather. With control group sales only falling by 0.3% m... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
